hankyoreh

and it has been confirmed that he is ill. However

After Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s National Defense Commission chairman, did not attend the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s official name, there has been a barrage of speculation from media outlets in South Korea and the United States, which report that Kim may have suffered a serious illness after a stroke.

However, the only confirmed “fact” so far is that North Korea’s official news agency has not carried reports of Kim’s public appearances since August 14. Given the fact that Kim appeared at both the 50th and 55th anniversaries of the country’s founding, his absence from the September 9 event was obviously rare. The governments of both South Korea and the United States have shown cautious responses, but they have not denied the reports about Kim’s health problems.

On September 10, North Korea dismissed reports that its leader might be seriously ill, with Kim Yong-nam, the chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, saying there is “no problem,” and another North Korean official calling the reports a “smear campaign.” However, given the fact that North Korea is one of the world’s most isolated nations, rumors of Kim’s illness are not likely to subside anytime soon, or at least until the North reports that its leader has appeared again in the public sphere. How do we understand the situation?

First, the reason why the government and media outlets in South Korea and the United States have kept a close eye on Kim’s condition has to do with the possibility that the North Korean leader is gravely ill or incapacitated. If Kim loses power at a time when no one has emerged as a candidate to succeed him, it will probably lead the Korean Peninsula into a catastrophic chaos that no one is able to predict. Kim wields an authoritarian power over North Korean society. Therefore, in the worst-case scenario, a potential vacuum in leadership and a power struggle within the North Korean military would deal a serious blow to the geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula, inter-Korean relations as well as North Korea-U.S. ties.

However, government authorities in South Korea and the United States have apparently attempted to downplay a scenario such as this. A South Korean government official said that, excluding Chairman Kim’s absence from the September 9 event, no peculiar movement lending itself to the possibility for a decisive change in the North’s power structure had been detected.

Second, though he may not be seriously ill or incapacitated, Kim may still be suffering the effects of an illness. Some reports say Kim may have suffered a stroke, but is now recovering. Lee Ki-dong, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said that if Kim had lost control over the North, the North Korean military would have entered a state of emergency. Given that there are no such signs, Lee said he believes Kim is still able to run the country, even if he is in poor health. A North Korea expert said that, in that case, “Kim may not be able to make quick and definitive decisions. If that happens, the impasse in inter-Korean relations, North Korea-U.S. relations and the six-party negotiations will continue for the time being.”

Third, there is the possibility that Kim may be shunning public appearances to rethink his strategy because there have been no signs of a breakthrough in the geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula and the U.S. election has begun in earnest. In fact, Kim was not seen in public for seven weeks in early 2003 when North Korea was in the midst of withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the U.S.-led war against Iraq was imminent. The North Korean leader also did not appear in public for about a month after Pyongyang test-fired a Taepodong intermediate-range ballistic missile in July 2006.

In the meantime, some analysts say Kim’s no-show may be a part of his strategy of using psychological warfare and mysticism to attract international attention at a time when the North’s claims have drawn little attention due to the U.S. presidential election. However, Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, pointed out, “At this point, it’s difficult to understand why Chairman Kim would endure suspicion from the outside world by not attending the anniversary event on September 9.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]