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With South Korea and the United States reportedly discussing military measures to deal with a sudden change in North Korea, there is concern that this is the rebirth of OPLAN 5029, discussion of which had been suspended following past controversy.

Initially, South Korea and the United States had formulated in 1997 a conceptual plan called CONPLAN 5029 as an allied blueprint to deal with sudden changes in North Korea. CONPLAN posited five kinds of sudden changes -- civil war, natural disasters, a mass exodus of refugees, the kidnapping of South Korean citizens and loss of control over weapons of mass destruction -- and outlined responses for each scenario. Seoul and Washington entered discussions to turn CONPLAN 5029, the basic scenario of its successor, OPLAN 5029, into an execution-use OPLAN, but in 2005, under the Roh Moo-hyun administration, Korea asked that the discussion be suspended due to concern the plan would violate South Korea’s national sovereignty.

A government official said, however, that with Lee Myung-bak coming to power, the two sides once again agree on the need for an operational military plan to deal with sudden changes in North Korea and have restarted discussions. Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee, too, told the National Assembly Defense Committee on September 11 that Korea was developing plans to deal with contingencies, even a full-scale war, and that the relevant government ministries and agencies were closely cooperating.

Military talks between South Korea and the United States are reportedly very comprehensive. One military official said Friday that the bilateral discussion considers the scope, targets and methods of concrete responses. He said the considerations have left all directions open, including transforming CONPLAN 5029 into OPLAN 5029 and creating a new joint operational plan tailored to the eventual transfer of wartime operation command.

Experts are expressing concern that with bilateral discussions prioritizing Korea-U.S. cooperation, the past dangers in OPLAN 5029 could be revived. In fact, CONPLAN 5029 included plans to move allied forces if there was concern that due to internal chaos in North Korea, weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear warheads or missiles could leak overseas or fall into the hands of North Korean hard-line military forces.

Appearing on MBC yesterday, Yonsei University Professor Moon Chung-in said OPLAN 5029 would bring great disaster. He said weapons of mass destruction needed to be thought of as something to be discussed within the framework of the six-party talks and jointly acted upon by all involved parties except North Korea. Preparing OPLAN 5029 based on the condition of taking bilateral military action against the North was not appropriate, he said.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]