hankyoreh

who has been displaced from Hwanghye Province in North Korea

The debate surrounding the resurrection of OPLAN 5029, a military contingency plan for sudden changes in North Korea, is resurfacing.

Some Grand National Party lawmakers and the conservative media are claiming that South Korea absolutely must prepare military measures in preparation for the collapse of the North Korean regime. Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee, too, told the National Assembly’s Defense Committee on September 11 that contingency plans were being developed, and that the relevant government ministries and agencies were closely cooperating. This shed light on the possibility the government would again begin to push OPLAN 5029.

There is strong criticism, however, that OPLAN 5029 is a dangerous idea that includes both arguments for a U.S.-led preemptive strike on North Korea and the occupation of North Korea. Critics say one must reexamine the reasons why the National Security Council suspended South Korea-U.S. talks on OPLAN 5029 in 2005, citing the violation of South Korean sovereignty and the possibility of provoking North Korea and China into a war on the Korean Peninsula. They say OPLAN 5029 is as dangerous now as it was then.

OPLAN’s violation of national sovereignty is cited as the plan’s biggest problem. Broadly speaking, two violations are cited.

Firstly, there is the issue of the return of wartime operational command to South Korea. The draft of OPLAN 5029 discussed by South Korean and U.S. military authorities at the time contained plans for an allied South Korean-U.S. force to advance into North Korea under the command of the U.S. Forces Korea, which also leads the Allied command, in a situation involving not a North Korean invasion, but political change or riots in North Korea. In the draft negotiations, the United States argued that in the event the North Korean regime lost internal control, a South Korea-U.S. force needed to advance into North Korea, gain control of North Korean weapons of mass destruction and prevent their proliferation, even without a state of war. The NIS, however, pointed out at the time that in such a case, the United States would exercise operational control in a situation involving internal problems in North Korea, not a North Korean invasion, and this would gravely violate South Korea’s exercise of peacetime operational command. A person who was a high-ranking security expert at the time said that at the current point in time, when South Korea is set to retake wartime operational command, advocating for OPLAN 5029 again was even less appropriate.

There were also concerns that should OPLAN 5029 become a reality, a U.S.-led military administration under allied command could be established in North Korea, and this, too, would violate South Korea’s national sovereignty. A reserve general who knows the discussion that took place at the time said there was much concern that under OPLAN 5029, the U.S. military could operate a military administration over North Korea in opposition to the principle forbidding foreign intervention in the reclaiming of territory in accordance with the spirit of the South Korean constitution, which proclaims North Korea, too, as part of the Republic of Korea.

Another major issue is that in the event the U.S. Forces Korea and the South Korean military, citing the need to control North Korean WMDs, were to excessively intervene from an early date in North Korea’s internal affairs, it would amplify the possibility of a military clash or war by sparking protest from North Korea and China. In a situation in which a government still exists in North Korea, South Korea-U.S. allied intervention would be designated as a preemptive strike and could ignite a full-scale war with North Korea. It could also give China the justification to intervene to match the U.S. advance. Appearing on Pyeonghwa Radio on Saturday, former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said there was no possibility of China entering North Korea first in the event of internal problems in the North, but if the United States appeared to be moving to control North Korea militarily, it would begin intervening using that as its excuse. He said if that were to occur, the country would be split along a line connecting Pyongyang and Wonsan.

Kim Jong-dae, the editor-in-chief of the defense journal “D&D Focus,” said OPLAN 5029, which focuses on a military response, reflects with great importance U.S. national interests related to WMDs. He said for South Korea, it was urgent -- at all levels -- to prepare response plans focusing on diplomatic and administrative capabilities so as to prevent the North Korean regime from collapsing and peacefully deal with possible problematic situations.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]