hankyoreh

North Korea has taken another step closer to a danger line that could bring about a response including the suspension of economic and energy aid from the United States and the other six-party states. The possibility of a clash between North Korea and the United States has grown that much closer.

North Korea demanded on Monday that the International Atomic Energy Agency remove the seals on the Yongbyon reprocessing facility, but drew the line at saying it would conduct experiments, though not those related to nuclear materials. Yesterday, however, it informed the IAEA that it would introduce nuclear material to the facility.

The nuclear material North Korea will insert into the facility is believed to be used fuel rods removed from Yongbyon’s five-megawatt reactor in accordance with the disablement agreement. It also said it would do this in about one week. If North Korea does what it says, North Korea will restart its reprocessing facility and be able to extract plutonium within the week.

This would be an effective violation of the closing and disablement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility in accordance with the February 13 and October 3 six-party agreements, and as such, is expected to greatly shake up the six-party talks. A response from the United States and other participants would be unavoidable.

It is unclear whether North Korea will restart the reprocessing facility after a week as pledged. Experts say that, from a technical standpoint, for North Korea to reactivate the Yongbyon facility, the first thing it would restart would be the reprocessing facility, and that would take at least two to three months.

The North has been conducting the necessary operations to restart the deactivated reprocessing facility since September 3. If the experts are right, this means we still have another month or two before the facility is restarted. A government official said, however, that the IAEA probably made its announcement after making its own confirmation, indicating that it might technically be possible for the North to begin reprocessing after a week.

Looking at the North’s actions till now, they are not judged to be a declaration of a full restart of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. The North has informed IAEA inspectors at Yongbyon simply not to approach the reprocessing facility; it has not asked them to leave the country. They can continue to inspect other nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, including the five-megawatt reactor. The North has essentially left open the possibility of a negotiated about-face.

The United States and other six-party participants are still placing weight on a negotiated breakthrough. Representative of this was an announcement by White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe on September 22, the day North Korea demanded the removal of seals from the reprocessing facility, who said U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao had agreed in a telephone conversation to work to convince North Korea to continue to walk the path of the six-party talks with the goal of negotiation. No plans are being revealed to suspend economic and energy aid to the North.

What is clear, however, is that the possibility of a clash rather than a compromise is gradually increasing. The time for compromise, which will last until North Korea actually begins extracting plutonium, seems to be running out.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]