Kim Jong-il still calling the shots, S. Korean gov’t officials say

Posted on : 2008-09-29 13:15 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
North may be using speculation about Kim’s health to gain leverage in nuclear negotiations
 North Hanghwe Province
North Hanghwe Province

North Korea continues to make decisions about the nuclear issue that could only come from National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il, despite suspicions he is in poor health.

The North has made a series of moves intended to give it more leverage in the current situation since it first announced it halted disablement procedures on August 14 and officially announced that it had done so on August 26. On September 3, it announced it would restore the facility, and on September 19, announced it had begun that process. On September 22, it demanded the International Atomic Energy Agency remove its seals from the reprocessing facility, and then on the 24th declared that the surveillance equipment had been removed and that it would restart the facility after a week. On September 28, it was suddenly announced that U.S. Assistant State Secretary Christopher Hill would be visiting Pyongyang.

Speculation about Chairman Kim’s health is becoming relatively less dominant. Some news media analysis has suggested that the hard-line turn taken in moves like the decision to halt disablement was the military taking advantage of Kim's poor health. Most experts, however, think that would be impossible.

“Looking at it in the context of precedent, there is no way the first vice foreign minister, Kang Sok Ju, or the military could have made the recent decisions,” said one South Korean government official.

Some experts say the latest series of moves from Pyongyang are actually proof that Chairman Kim is not having much difficulty making strategic decisions.

On September 10 the National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee that Kim had collapsed from a cerebrovascular ailment on August 14 but had undergone surgery and was improving. Pyongyang announced on August 14 that it was halting disablement and officially announced its decision on August 26. This would mean that even if he had collapsed on the 14th, by no later than the 26th he was already ready to follow up on his initial decision. The NIS appeared to have considered the context of these moves by the North when it reported to the National Assembly that Kim was having “no problems at all in governing.”

It is also possible that Kim’s health problem may have been so minor that it has had little influence on his judgment from the beginning. Even within the government, there are doubts about the reliability of NIS intelligence about Kim’s ability to “stand up with assistance” and “brush his own teeth,” as if it was watching him from close by. According to one military official, “military intelligence agencies are not able to believe the NIS has secured that much of an independent channel.”

“In an extreme case we cannot exclude the possibility that the North is using the speculation that (Kim) is bedridden as a way to maintain ambiguity and gain an advantageous position in the nuclear negotiations,” said another government official. “All that is clear now is that Chairman Kim is making the major decisions.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]