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The North Korea policy of the South Korean administration of President Lee Myung-bak, who marks nine months since his inauguration this month, is at a serious crossroads.

Despite intense pressure from the North that could put a stop to South Korean sightseeing tours to the ancient North Korean border city of Gaeseong (Kaesong) and suspend cross-border rail service beginning December 1, the South Korean government appears to have no intention of changing its policy on the North, saying that even if it were to revise the policy at this juncture, it knows of no better way to proceed. A high-ranking official at the presidential office of the Blue House said, “If we change the direction of our North Korea policy, the things we have done in principle so far will come to nothing. Until there is a change in North Korea, we will be patient and persuade” the North to cooperate.

However, recent circumstances surrounding the South’s policy on North Korea are changing quickly. Experts say that Lee’s North Korea policy is up against three major factors: strong and continued pressure from the North, public opinion that is critical of the South’s policy line and what is expected to be an aggressive policy on the North by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama.

Unless South Korea changes its policy on North Korea, the North is likely to close the Gaeseong Industrial Complex as the next step in its effort to put pressure on the South, following its November 24 announcement that it will cut off rail transportation and tourism beginning December 1 and potentially preceding the complete severing of inter-Korean relations. Ko Yoo-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said, “In the first stage, North Korea will apply pressure, including the suspension of tours to Gaeseong, until Obama takes office (on January 20) next year. If there is no change in (the South’s) policy, it will step up the level of pressure in a second and third stage. If North Korea takes its pressure to the second and third stage, it will obliterate any chance for President Lee Myung-bak to restore relations with the North during his term.”

Even conservatives are saying that the South Korean government should reconsider its policy on the North. In a press conference on November 21, 103 influential figures from Protestant churches, including David Yonggi Cho, minister of the Full Gospel Church, and Yang Young-shik, dean of the Unification Missionary University at the Christian Council of Korea, urged the government to “pursue a slightly more flexible and inclusive approach,” while balancing “the abandonment of North Korean nuclear capabilities; the normalization of relations between North Korea and the United States and between North Korea and Japan; and the establishment of a system of economic cooperation and peace,” rather than “carrying out a confrontational policy with the goal of bringing out internal changes in North Korea.”

The South Korean government has also been experiencing pressure because of the incoming Obama administration’s apparent willingness to negotiate with the North.

In an interview with the Washington-based Radio Free Asia on November 24, Larry Niksch, a specialist in Asian Affairs at the U.S. Congressional Research Service, said that “one of the things” the incoming Obama administration is “considering doing very early is to establish a diplomatic mission in Pyongyang.” The Obama administration is expected to engage in high-level discussions with North Korea that go beyond the framework of the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear program, Niksch told Radio Free Asia. In the process of taking that approach, it is likely the administration will normalize diplomatic ties with North Korea, Niksch said in the interview.

Some experts have said that the South Korean government has no choice but to consider changing its North Korea policy. Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said that regardless of the Lee administration’s desire not to bow to North Korea, it will be difficult for the government to stick to its current policy if the circumstances surrounding the North see significant realignment in the coming year, when rapid progress is likely in relations between North Korea and the United States.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]