hankyoreh

“In the future, the weight of the six-party talks will diminish and the two-party structure of North Korea and the United States will be strengthened.”

In connection with the six-party talks held in Beijing from Monday to Thursday on the North Korean nuclear issue, which broke down after being unable to clear the hurdle of “verification protocol documentation,” many experts predicted that considerable changes will take place in the structure of the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue.

This forecast is rooted in: the North Korea policy approach of the Barack Obama administration, which must tackle head-on the task of resolving this issue from January 20 of next year; the hard-line approach to Pyongyang from the South Korean and Japanese governments; and the perceptions of North Korea, which has regarded root issues between itself and the United States as “issues of ending the policy of antagonism, and of trust.”

Many are analyzing the failure to achieve results in this set of talks as being due not only to the difficulty of compromising on the contentious point of verification protocol documentation, but also the issue of timing; in this it is a period of change in the U.S. administration. According to this analysis, Pyongyang adopted a wait-and-see strategy in anticipation of Obama’s inauguration. “If you consider the characteristics of the time at which the talks were held, there’s no need to make pessimistic predictions about the future of the North Korean nuclear issue,” said Hankyoreh Peace Research Institute head Kim Yeon-cheol on Friday.

These comments take into consideration the fact that President-elect Obama is emphasizing “tough and direct diplomacy,” including the announcement that he could meet directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Sejong Institute senior researcher Paik Hak-soon said, “North Korea thinks that the basic issue between North Korea and the United States is not a technical issue, but trust.” Because the Obama administration is likely to specify a “package deal,” the trust issue between the two nations should improve considerably, said Paik.

Many are also highly concerned about the negative influence that Seoul’s hard-line policy toward North Korea will have on the progress of the six-party talks. This is because South Korea has abandoned its role of “promoter,” in which it had previously joined host nation China in mediating differences of opinion between the United States and North Korea. “This round of talks gave hints of the directionality of the six-party talks,” said Kim Yeon-cheol.

“Considering the hard-line quality of Korea and Japan in their approach to North Korea in this round of talks, we can predict that two-party negotiations between North Korea and the United States will be strengthened after the Obama administration takes office,” Kim said. This is because the usefulness of the six-party talks can only decrease noticeably as long as South Korea and Japan remain uncompromisingly absorbed in issues of North Korea’s nuclear dismantlement and Japanese abductees rather than forming the conditions for comprehensive execution of the September 19 Joint Statement.

Following the breakdown of the talks, the Bush administration in the United States hinted at a reconsideration of its strategy toward North Korea. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said Thursday that “because North Korea decided not to work with us...we’re going to have to rethink some of this action for action” policy. But when asked about the possibility of pulling back the removal of North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, Perino replied, “No, I don’t think so.” In connection with plans to rethink strategy toward North Korea, she indicated the possibility of halting crude oil support to North Korea, saying, “Obviously one of the things people think about is energy assistance.”

What course will North Korea take? Many are paying attention to whether Pyongyang will show a provocative response, such as the halting of disablement and taking measures to restore its nuclear facilities to their original condition in order to get the attention of the Obama administration, which will be focused primarily on the economic crisis and the Iraq and Afghanistan issues. Yang Mu-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, “There is a stronger possibility that they will opt to adjust their speed rather than halting disablement.”

Dongguk University Professor Kim Yong-hyun commented, “It will be a great burden for the North as well if things start out badly with the Obama administration.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]