hankyoreh

when North Korea tightened regulations on the number of people it will admit amidst the continued deterioration of inter-Korean relations.

On the occasion of the new year, The Hankyoreh sat down with 32 South Korean experts on North Korea to discuss the prospects for relations between the two Koreas and between North Korea and the United States in the new year. Until now, progress in relations between North Korea and the United States has been typically been accompanied by improvements in inter-Korean relations. Still, most of the experts we talked with said that there would be progress in relations between North Korea and the United States, but that inter-Korean relations would either continue in their present state or undergo further strain.

Hong Hyeon-ik, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said, “It would be excessively optimistic to believe that improvements in relations between North Korea and the United States can simply lead to improvements in inter-Korean relations. Inter-Korean relations should be resumed and improved through an independent process.”

University of North Korean Studies Professor Gu Gap-wu said that if the South Korean government were to revise its policy toward North Korea, inter-Korean relations and relations between South Korea and the United States would improve in tandem with one another. The South Korean government should first decide whether it wants to synchronize inter-Korean relations with North Korea-U.S. relations, Gu said.

Lee Wu-yeong, another professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said that the philosophical underpinnings of Lee’s Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness and the concept of mutual prosperity, which is the new motto of the Unification Ministry, are the same in that both have as a precondition change in North Korea. It will be difficult to achieve progress in inter-Korean relations unless the Lee administration changes its policy to one based on coexistence with North Korea.

Taking this a step further, Sungkyunkwan University Professor Lee Hee-ok predicts there will be a phenomenon in which South Korea is left out of relations with Washington and Pyongyang.

Former Unification Minister Kang In-deok said, “Inter-Korean relations are certain to lag behind North Korea-U.S. relations.” But he gave a different reason for this. “It won’t be because President Lee Myung-bak’s North Korea policy is wrong, but because the North prioritizes relations with the United States.” This means, Kang added, that North Korea will only want to deal with the United States while shunning South Korea.

University of North Korean Studies Professor Yang Mu-jin and Dongguk University Professor Kim Yong-hyeon both said they expect there to be dialogue between the two Koreas in the second half of 2009 amid rapid progress in North Korea-U.S. relations.

But many experts were pessimistic about whether the South Korean government is wiling to solve the impasse in inter-Korean relations. An expert at a state-run research institute, who asked not to be named, said, “It is the South Korean government’s choice. If it continues to demand that the North bow before the South, inter-Korean relations and relations between Pyongyang and Washington will be deadlocked simultaneously.” That meant worsening inter-Korean relations could become a stumbling block to progress in Pyongyang-Washington relations.

Experts advised the Lee administration to present a clear vision for inter-Korean relations and make active efforts to break through the impasse with the North, going beyond its practice of trying to “correct” the “habits” of the North and distancing itself from the previous administration of Roh Moo-hyun. To that end, experts urged President Lee to scrap the Vision 3000 plan and make a public pledge to honor the June 15 and October 4 declarations, the two summit agreements reached by Lee’s two predecessors, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.

Kyung Hee University Professor Kwon Man-hak said, “It will be difficult to expect improvements in inter-Korean relations if the Vision 3000 plan is maintained as a tool for bringing about mutual prosperity with North Korea.”

Former Unification Minister Cheong Se-hyeon said that President Lee Myung-bak should be the primary advocate for the June 15 and October 4 declarations. The only way the North will trust the South is for the South Korean leader to state his support for the declarations because they both are agreements reached by the leaders of the two countries, Cheong said.

Dongguk University Professor Park Soon-seong said, “If President Lee were to express his willingness early in the year to respect the June 15 and October 4 declarations and develop the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex, a core part of the October 4 Declaration, it is likely the South and North would resume talks in the process of constructing a dormitory within the Gaeseong complex.”

However, Jeon Bong-geun, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said, “Whether to acknowledge the June 15 and October 4 declarations is not a core part of inter-Korean relations.”

Most experts agreed that a special envoy for North Korea could help to thaw inter-Korean relations, but acknowledged that the South currently has no desire to send such an envoy and that the North would be unlikely to accept one. They agreed that it will be important for the South to create an atmosphere in which the sending of an envoy is acceptable to all sides.

Ko Yoo-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said, “The urgent task for inter-Korean relations is rebuilding trust. Without trust, it will be impossible to send a special envoy to the North. To rebuild trust, the South should not antagonize the North. It should attempt to rebuild a basic level of trust by resuming humanitarian aid and tours to Mount Geumgang (Kumgang) and the city of Gaeseong. Those efforts should then develop into talks among government officials.”

Jeong Wook-sik, the head of the civic group PeaceNetwork, said the South Korean government could see success in the sending of a special envoy to the North if three tasks are accomplished first: South Korea resumes and completes energy aid to the North under the October 3 agreement regardless of the North’s acceptance of the nuclear verification agreement; President Lee expresses his willingness to respect the June 15 and October 4 declarations in his New Year’s message; and South Korea resumes humanitarian aid to the North in February to guard against food shortages in the North.

Kim Chang-su, an expert at the Korea Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, expressed the conditions under which a special envoy could be sent. He said, “President Lee Myung-bak should acknowledge the June 15 and October 4 declarations and resume food aid to North Korea in March. He should also lay the groundwork for restoration of inter-Korean relations by sending a special envoy in June, when the new U.S. administration finishes appointing its diplomatic officials.”

Lim Su-ho, a senior researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute, advised the Lee administration to forgo its approach of exploiting inter-Korean relations as a tool for local politics, encouraged it to acknowledge that inter-Korean relations are unique and go beyond diplomatic issues, and urged it to replace the officials currently in charge of inter-Korean relations with talented people with experience and ability.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]