[Analysis] Possibility of military conflict looms large over inter-Korean relations

Posted on : 2009-01-31 14:25 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
North’s recent statements and South’s adherence to its strategy of waiting have contributed to increase in tension
 the Unification Ministry spokesperson
the Unification Ministry spokesperson

A statement released Friday by North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (Jo Pyeong Tong) is being viewed as a sequel to a statement made Jan. 17 by the North Korean Army that threatened an “all-out confrontational posture” against South Korea.

The recent statement said that “the indiscriminate anti-North Korea confrontational maneuvers by the South’s conservative authorities” have “driven inter-Korean relations to the worst possible state, one close to war.”

In the statement, North Korea declares it will nullify all agreements with the South related to easing political and military tensions between them and scrap provisions in the Basic Agreement related to the Northern Limit Line, the military boundary line in the West Sea.

To put it simply, North Korea says it will no longer recognize the Northern Limit Line nor recognize inter-Korean agreements to prevent accidental clashes in the West Sea. But by refusing to recognize the NLL, the North is courting a military skirmish with a high-stakes game of chicken and pushing inter-Korean relations, which have gradually deteriorated since the administration of Lee Myung-bak was inaugurated last year, to the edge of a military conflict that goes beyond the political confrontations that have occurred between North and South thus far.

This calls up a need to examine why the North issued the statement at this point in time and what implications it will have for the geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula. The first question is how the North’s hawkish statement should be viewed. It was issued a week after North Korea’s National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il told Wang Jiarui, director of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, that Pyongyang “doesn’t want to see tensions building on the Korean Peninsula.”

A researcher at a South Korean state-run research institute said, “The North’s intention is to deal with the six-party talks, North Korea-U.S. relations and South-North relations as separate issues.”

The North’s latest statement is also notable for the way it mentions the South-North Basic Agreement. In the statement, the North nullifies the “points on the military boundary line in the West Sea” stipulated in the appendix of the Basic Agreement, taking a tougher stance than previous demands to honor the June 15 and Oct. 4 declarations.

The statement indicates that if the South sticks to “indiscriminate anti-North Korea confrontational maneuvers,” the Basic Agreement, which is touted by President Lee as the most important of the inter-Korean agreements, will become nullified as well. The North seems to be warning that inter-Korean relations could go back to the hostile state that existed prior to 1992, when the Basic Agreement was signed.

The South Korean government has thus far offered limited responses to the North’s statements, applying instead its strategy of “waiting,” with which it seems to see North Korean statements as a kind of psychological warfare.

A high-ranking official at the presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae tried to downplay the North’s latest statement, saying, “The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (Jo Pyeong Tong) is (the North’s) advertising agency. Precisely speaking, isn’t it an agency for operations?” The CPRF is a state body affiliated with the North’s Workers’ Party of Korea in charge of South Korean affairs.

Kim Yeon-cheol, the head of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, said, “While the risk of the worst-case scenario, armed clashes between South and North, has increased significantly, I cannot see that there are any government measures to prevent accidental clashes. The more serious problem is the government’s ability to manage the situation.”

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