“One will come to know later what will be launched” in North Korea. “Space development is the independent right of the DPRK and the requirement of the developing reality.”

These statements were made Feb. 16 in an article carried by North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency titled, “It’s an insult and a grave challenge to the DPRK that the anti-DPRK hostile forces are spreading rumors about the DPRK’s ‘preparations for launching a long-distance projectile.’”

DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s official name.

North Korea appears to be stepping up its rhetoric with this new claim, especially in comparison with the statement made Feb. 7 in the North’s state newspaper Rodong Sinmun, which said, “Anyone has the right to the peaceful use of space.”

The North said, “One will come to know later what will be launched in the DPRK,” instead of saying that nothing would be launched, even though the North accused the United States and other nations of spreading rumors about the North’s preparing to launch a long-range missile, as it has in past weeks. This indicates the North will try to launch something, which they insist is a satellite.

A launch of any kind could heighten tensions in Northeast Asia and cool diplomatic efforts toward resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue, including the six-party process and plans by the U.S. administration of President Barack Obama to establish a new era in relations with the North.

Hillary Clinton, who is in Asia this week on her first trip abroad as secretary of state, has already warned, “North Korea has to understand that all of the countries in East Asia have made it clear that its behavior,” including threatening a missile launch, “is viewed as unacceptable.”

“Regardless of whether it is a missile or a satellite, I understand (a launch) would go against U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718,” South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said earlier in the day at a parliamentary meeting, referring to the resolution adopted October 14, 2006, following North Korea’s nuclear test. In the resolution, the United Nations warned that North Korea not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile. Yu’s remark indicates the United Nations could put sanctions on the North if it were to test fire a long-range projectile, which Pyongyang would claim is a satellite.

Jeong Se-hyeon, head of the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, said, “No matter what North Korea claims, if it actually launches (a long-range projectile), the U.S. and the countries related to the six-party talks will regard it as a provocation and a threat. North Korea must face up to reality and calculate its gains and losses.”

There are mixed views on whether North Korea will actually go through with a test launch. A researcher at a state-run research institute in South Korea said, “North Korea may wait and see for the time being, because the U.S. has named Stephen Bosworth, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, as its special envoy on the North Korean nuclear program, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has talked of a ‘comprehensive approach’” to relations with the North.

Others, however, say that North Korea may be threatening a test launch to give it more leverage in anticipation of negotiations with the United States. “We are preparing to deal with a situation in which (North Korea) actually test-fires” a long-range projectile, said a South Korean government official.

In any case, it is likely that the North will be influenced by Clinton’s upcoming visit to Asia, as well as steps taken by the Obama administration toward Pyongyang.

Clinton is in Japan Monday through Wednesday and will be in South Korea Thursday and Friday, following which she will go to China Friday through Sunday and round out her Asian trip with a stop in Indonesia.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]