[Analysis] Six-party nations move into high gear to dissuade North from satellite launch

Posted on : 2009-02-28 14:51 KST Modified on : 2009-02-28 14:51 KST
U.S. envoy appears open to meeting with N. Korea during his visit to four six-party countries next week
 former U.S. ambassador to South Korea
former U.S. ambassador to South Korea

Amid continued public declarations by North Korea to go ahead with its plan to send a satellite into orbit, the nations involved in the six-party process on the North Korean nuclear issue stepped up their diplomatic efforts to ensure resumption of the talks. Stephen Bosworth, the United States special envoy to North Korea, will visit the six-party countries of South Korea, China, Japan and Russia next week. It is believed that Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Wu Dawei, China’s chief delegate to the six-party talks, was in Pyongyang last week to discuss resumption of the negotiations.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday (EST) announced last week that Bosworth would be visiting Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow to “consult on next steps to move the six-party process forward.” Bosworth will be accompanied by U.S. State Department diplomat Sung Kim, who was appointed to lead the U.S. delegation to the six-party talks. Bosworth had originally planned to visit South Korea first, but it was reported that he adjusted his itinerary following an announcement that South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan would go abroad. Bosworth will now travel first to China, then Japan, Russia and South Korea.

Bosworth’s trip is being seen as the precursor to a high-level meeting between North Korea and the United States on various issues including the North’s planned launch of what it says is a satellite.

When asked whether he is planning to meet North Korea officials on his trip, Bosworth said, “The question as to whether we’re going to engage with them on this particular trip remains to be decided. That will depend upon our consultations in the region, and it will depend upon what we hear back from the North Koreans.” The remark was interpreted to mean that he has left room for a meeting with North Korean officials either in Beijing or at another point in his trip, or that he could visit North Korea in March.

After an international academic conference held at the George Institute of Technology in Atlanta on Thursday, Kim Myong-gil, a diplomat at North Korea’s mission to the United Nations, said that his country is planning to go ahead with the “satellite launch” and that the only remaining question is when the launch will take place.

But Kim did not rule out the possibility of the North’s engaging in talks with the United States. When asked whether he met the U.S. side on “movements to launch a missile,” Kim said, “I won’t give an answer to that.”

In 2000, under the administration of former U.S. President Bill Clinton, North Korea and the United States struck an agreement under which Washington would help finance the North’s satellite launch and Russia and other nations would send the North’s satellite into orbit if Pyongyang agreed not to launch the satellite during North Korea-U.S. missile negotiations. The test launch was delayed.

China’s chief negotiator to the six-party talks, Wu Dawei, was believed to have met his North Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan, in Pyongyang last week to discuss the issue satellite launch. During the meeting, Wu was believed to have expressed China’s concerns about the negative impact the satellite launch would have on progress in the six-party talks and the geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia. “I learned that North Korea expressed its desire to resume the six-party talks, regardless of the satellite launch,” a source in Beijing said.

Japan is also stepping up pressure on North Korea, saying it is considering shooting the satellite down using its missile defense system if the North goes ahead with the launch.

Under international law, however, no country has a right to shoot down a satellite, and any movement in that direction could be viewed as a serious military threat and hostile action. Therefore, Japan’s statement is being described by observers as a threat. Some say that Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, who, with approval ratings of 10 percent, is on the verge of losing office, may simply be trying to reverse the political crisis his government is facing.

In a telephone interview with The Hankyoreh, a Japanese official in charge of North Korean intelligence for the Japanese government said that the Japanese government may simply be threatening the North with the idea that it could shoot the satellite down. The likelihood that the Japanese will try to shoot the satellite down “is very low,” the official said.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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