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when overland passage between the two Koreas resumed a day after North Korea cut military communications with the South.

Overland border crossings between South and North Korea resumed Tuesday, a day after the North closed the border. About 80 South Koreans who had been stranded at the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex, located just north of the heavily armed inter-Korean border, due to the closure were set to return home today.

In a press briefing Tuesday, Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for the South’s Unification Ministry, said, “At around 9:10 a.m. on March 10, the North delivered to us a letter of notification signed by a person in charge of military affairs in the East and West Sea districts via the Gaeseong Industrial Complex Management Committee saying that it approved the movement of people and vehicles over the Military Demarcation Line. Entry and exit to and from the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and the Mount Geumgang region have returned to normal,” Kim said.

It is difficult to explain why North Korea would have barred overland border crossings for South Korean workers at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex on Monday and reopened the border the following day. Even the views of South Korean government officials are mixed.

North Korea has not offered any explanation for the move, other than a statement from the Supreme Command of the North’s Korean People’s Army sent early Monday morning, in which it said it had applied more stern military controls to ensure the safety of the North-South management area in the East and West Sea districts and announced it was cutting off the military communications line during the Key Resolve exercise scheduled for March 9-20. Key Resolve is an annual military drill for South Korean and U.S. forces, which the U.S.-led UN Command classifies as a defensive readiness exercise but the North regards as part of a hostile policy of aggression.

North Korea has been preparing to launch a satellite, which is largely believed to be a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, a move some believe is related to the North’s attempts to give itself more leverage in negotiations with the United States.

Observers are split on what could have motivated the North’s latest move.

Some observers say it was a calculated action. An official at the South Korean government said Tuesday, “I think the North Korean side has no intention of shutting down the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. It seems they were trying to amplify the sense of anxiety in the South by blocking border crossings for a day and then swiftly reopening the border to guard itself against criticism. Seen from a larger vantage point, the move is aimed at pressing the (South Korean) government to change its policies by creating internal friction in the South and putting the (worsening) state of inter-Korean relations on the U.S. agenda.”

Others say the North’s move was a result of “administrative and technical errors” committed by North Korean agencies, including a possible miscommunication among them. This means that the ban on cross-border traffic may not have been intentional. A source who asked not to be named said, “Given the statement by the North Korean military’s Supreme Command, it would be appropriate to view the things that happened yesterday and today as a technical issue, not an issue of policy or strategy by the North.”

One expert said, “The North’s senior officials may not understand the technical aspects of the dual-use South-North military communication line, which has been used for communications between military authorities as well as communications related to the passage of people between South and North Korea.”

A less widely accepted view is that North Korea had intended to ban cross-border traffic during the Key Resolve exercise, but changed its mind because of criticism from the South and international society that said the North was trying to make civilians into hostages and because of the economic losses that would have resulted from decreased operations of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.

Whatever the North’s real intentions were, South Korean government officials are generally in agreement that, for now, the North will not completely block cross-border traffic to South Koreans traveling to the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. One government official said, “Because the North has publicly declared that it will apply stern military control during the Key Resolve period, it could scale back the number of people and vehicles crossing the border but I don’t think it will block the border completely.”

Both South and North Korean authorities are likely to face difficulties as a result of South Korean workers at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex having been stranded on Monday. After it temporarily cut off cross-border traffic, this following its March 5 statement in which it said it would not guarantee the safety of South Korean civilian aircraft flying over the East Sea, it will be difficult for the North to avoid the criticism that it tried to take civilians and the private sector hostage. Meanwhile, the South Korean administration of President Lee Myung-bak will face criticism for its inability to avert a crisis and ensure the safety of its people as a result of its role in severing government-level ties with the North.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]