hankyoreh

There is growing interest in the state of North Korean military technology, particularly whether it has the capability to successfully launch a satellite, now that Pyongyang is making launch preparations.

North Korea test-fired a Rodong-1 missile with a 1,000 kilometer range in May 1993. Five years later, in August 1998, it fired a Taepodong-1 missile with double the range of the Rodong-1. The first stage fell into the East Sea, the second passed through Japanese airspace at an elevation of 65 kilometers, and the third stage is believed to have burned up after failing to find its target path. It launched a Taepodong-2 missile in July 2006 that maintained normal flight for approximately 40 seconds before it is believed to have fallen into the East Sea.

The North is believed to have made technological progress since that time. Experts believe it at least has the ability to launch a low-orbit satellite in the head of the Taepodong-2, which is known in the North as the Unha-2. One South Korean government official said it is believed the Taepodong-2 is the result of development of the fuel, navigational and warhead separation technology of the Taepodong-1. It has also been learned that the North has spent considerable effort on the development of solid fuel, making it likely that some solid fuel might go into the Taepodong-2. Recently developed missiles have been using solid fuel, which is easier to transport and faster to load than liquid fuel.

Even if the North launches a satellite with technology it has developed on its own, “if it doesn’t have the know-how to control the satellite once in orbit there’s no use in launching one,” said an official at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute. It is unlikely the North has the technology to find its own unique orbit, one that does not overlap with other existing satellites.

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in December 2006 that North Korea had imported some materials and parts to make warhead missile, but that otherwise it was self sufficient in that regard. Many experts continue to believe, however, that there must be limits to how far North Korea’s independent knowledge really extends, whether it has the ability to produce satellite parts that can withstand temperature extremes and zero gravity.

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