hankyoreh

Gyeonggi Province

North Korea yesterday kept the border closed for a third consecutive day, leaving hundreds of South Korean workers stranded at the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex. The closure has touched off concern about the safety of the civilians stranded there, with many experts worrying that it is a bad decision that could undermine Pyongyang’s credibility overseas and cast a dark cloud over the future of the industrial park and inter-Korean relations as a whole.

It remains unclear why the North has made the unilateral decision to close the border, risking a backlash. North Korea has been tight-lipped about its motivations, but observers have suggested some plausible scenarios.

One possibility is that the closure may be representative of Pyongyang’s reaction toward the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise Key Resolve, which started early last week and will continue through March 20. A high-ranking South Korean government official said, “(The border closure) might be a temporary but strong response to specific parts of the Key Resolve military exercise.”

Key Resolve involves defensive training in preparation for aggression from the North and the possibility of a counterattack from the South Korea-U.S. forces, including a possible invasion of the North. It may not have been a coincidence that the North decided to close the overland border during counterattack stage. Pyongyang has a record of cutting off inter-Korean relations during South Korea-U.S. military exercises, for example cutting dialogue altogether during another South Korea-U.S. military exercise known as RSOI (Reception, Staging, Onward Movement, Integration), which preceded Key Resolve.

Some experts say that the North’s decision to close the border on Friday may have come in response to the way South Korea reacted to the North’s closing the border last Monday and re-opening it Tuesday. A government source said, “At the time, the South Korean media characterized the resumption of overland travel across the border as a ‘slap in the face’ to the North, prompting the communist country to take strong action to show that it is still in control.”

Others, though a minority, argue that the North is trying to push the South to choose either to change its North Korea policy or face the permanent closure of the Gaesung Industrial Complex. An expert at a state-run research institute said, “After concluding that there is no future for the Gaeseong Industrial Complex under the Lee Myung-bak administration, the North might be attempting to pass the buck to the South, despite the consequences that could come with closing the border.”

If the North were the one to shut down the complex, long a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, it would likely come under fire from the international community, so it might be trying to get the South to withdraw its companies and workers instead. But many say that it would be better for Pyongyang if Seoul were to go the other route and change its North Korea policy.

Unfortunately, the South Korean government’s stance toward the North could change for the worse if the border continues to remain closed through Monday. On Saturday, the Unification Ministry notified the North of the travel schedules of the 655 South Koreans who applied to travel to the Gaeseong complex on Monday and the 214 who had filed applications to return to the South the same day. It delivered the travel schedules of those who were supposed to return to the South on Friday and Saturday in a separate notice.

“If they don’t return by Monday, the sentiment in the media and among the public will go sour,” a high-ranking government official said. “What happens on that day will be important.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]