[Analysis] Inter-Korean border closing puts S. Korea between a rock and a hard place

Posted on : 2009-03-16 11:13 KST Modified on : 2009-03-16 11:13 KST
S. Korea has run out of means with which to pressure the North, leaving it with no effective way to tackle the current deadlock

The South Korean government remains relatively calm in response to the North’s decision to close the inter-Korean border, leaving hundreds stranded at the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex. The border was closed for the third consecutive day on Sunday.

The government has thus far refrained from using the word “detention,” choosing instead to define the current situation as a “delay in the repatriation of our citizens.” A high-ranking government official said, “I don’t think the North is behaving like a terrorist or doing anything to detain (them) for a long period of time.” He based his assessment on the fact that telephone lines with South Korean workers in Gaeseong remain open and the North is still accepting applications for travel delivered by the South Korean government.

Over the weekend, the government seemed to be taking a wait-and-see stance. The government says that if South Korean workers are allowed to enter the Gaeseong complex and the stranded workers permitted to return home on Monday, it will consider border crossings normalized. When asked about the government’s position, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said, “It is a universally-accepted practice that those who want to return should return and those who wish to go should go.” His remarks indicate that the government will not block South Koreans from traveling to and from Gaeseong if the North accepts the South’s applications for Monday travel. On Saturday, the ministry notified the North of the travel schedules of 655 South Koreans who applied to travel to the Gaeseong complex on Monday and 214 who applied to return to the South the same day.

This is a sharp contrast with the South Korean government’s reaction to the shooting death of a female tourist to Mount Geumgang (Kumgang) in July, when it cut off tourism to the area. A high-ranking official said, “At that time, a life was lost. This time, it’s different and discussion about preventing a recurrence of the border closing could be done after inter-Korean border crossings return to normal.”

In the end, the South Korean government’s wait-and-see stance may prove to be its only choice. An anonymous South Korean government official said, “Gaeseong departures are scheduled for early in the morning and return trips are supposed to be taken in the afternoon. If we don’t send citizens (to the Gaeseong complex), the North might take offense and decide not to send our citizens back.”

If the border remains closed on Monday, the government plans to take action. The problem is that the South Korean government has run out of means with which to pressure the North, leaving it with no effective way to tackle the current deadlock. “The bigger problem is that there is no communications line with the North Korean government through which its real intentions could be interpreted,” a former senior government official said. The North cut military communications with the South last Monday.

Giving up the Gaeseong complex might be the strongest message the South Korean government could send at the moment. But a move like that could backfire, putting South Korea between a rock and a hard place.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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