hankyoreh

immigration and quarantine facility near the DMZ in Paju

As of March 16 North Korea was allowing South Koreans only to return to the South, by land, from the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex, and was still prohibiting travel into the North.

This latest position on the part of Pyongyang has, in turn, caused a shift in the focus of discussions in South Korea from concern about the safety of Southerners in Gaeseong to how viable the industrial complex will be in the long turn.

Permitting Southerners to return to the South is a decision that will likely put concerns about Southern personnel being “held against their will” to rest. Which is not to say there is no possibility the North will not again prevent people from returning to South Korea, since the decision is not what can be considered a solution. But at the very least, immediate criticism that Pyongyang is “detaining” Southerners will subside, now that people who were unable to return to the South for three days from Friday through Sunday have been allowed back across the border.

In deciding to allow Southerners to go home, the North appears to have noticed the negative opinion in South Korea and the international community for having touched on the sensitive issue of the safety of non-North Korean civilians.

It has not, however, stopped its attempt to use the Gaeseong complex as a card to play against Seoul.

It is still prohibiting Southern personnel and materials from traveling to Gaeseong. It is not even allowing land shipments of food and heating supplies for Southerners who are still there. South Korean companies doing business there say four full days of not being allowed to send people to Gaeseong is beginning to hurt operations. Some are seeing production suffer for lack of materials, and some companies are having to stop production completely. According to a survey by the Gaeseong Industrial Park Business Association (Gaeseong Gongdan Gieop Hyeobuihoe), some 94 percent of member companies said they will have to halt production if access is limited for a full week. There are but three days left before it a full week expires.

Some Southern observers are beginning to suggest North Korea really is trying to use such high-handed pressure tactics against the South that it could actually shut down the Gaeseong complex, which will go barren all by itself if Pyongyang continues to permit Southerners to travel to the South while not permitting them to return, a way for the North make the complex run dry without having to bear responsibility for shutting it down directly.

Most observers, however, think the North will not go so far as to let Gaeseong shut down.

“North Korea will be starving itself of cards to play against the South if the industrial park shuts down,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University.

There is no evidence that Pyongyang is ready to play the “last card” in its hand.

Not that the South has much it can work with, either. Southern companies did reduce by 35 percent the number of their employees who were scheduled to return, and say they will continue to submit border crossing plans to North Korean authorities while asking for a return to normalcy. Some companies are calling for a hard-line response, one that keeps a withdrawal from Gaeseong open as a possibility, in order to pressure the North into refraining from making similar decisions in the future. Now that the immediate concern about Southerners there being able to return has been resolved, however, the idea is not being immediately considered.

“The only method we have right now is to be calm and stick to our principles,” said one government official.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]