[Kim Jong-il‘s third term: foreign relations] Outwardly N. Korea holds no “illusions” about U.S.

Posted on : 2009-04-14 12:35 KST Modified on : 2009-04-14 12:35 KST
N. Korea prepares to engage the U.S. despite mute protest, while hinting at tough future relations with S. Korea
’ April 10. The festival was held in remembrance of the late Kim Il-sung’s birthday (April 15).
’ April 10. The festival was held in remembrance of the late Kim Il-sung’s birthday (April 15).

With the help of experts at the Hankyoreh Peace Research Institute, the Hankyoreh presents its analysis and forecasts on the character and direction of “Kim Jong-il‘s Third Term System,” which was inaugurated by the first meeting of North Korea’s 12th Supreme People‘s Assembly last Thursday. -- Editor

Lee Jeong-chul, professor, Soongsil University

In September 2003, a noteworthy resolution regarding diplomatic matters was adopted at the first meeting of the 11th Supreme People’s Assembly, which announced the beginning of Kim Jong-il‘s second term as North Korea’s leader. At that time, the first meeting of the six-party talks had just ended without concrete results, and the situation was ripe for the military and other areas of the country to dispute the effectiveness of participating in the talks. Amid this state of affairs, the Assembly sent an unprecedented message of support and encouragement for the Foreign Ministry‘s foreign policy activities and its discretionary powers.

In contrast, the first meeting of the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly last Thursday was not characterized by any exceptionally clear message with regard to foreign relations. Some names well known to us reappeared on the roster of representatives in attendance at the Assembly, including those of First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju and Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-kwan, but these names were not referred to during the course of the meeting.

There was also no noticeable indication of a policy change corresponding to the change in the foreign relations environment represented by the arrival of the Barack Obama administration in the U.S. This response, a kind of silence when compared to the clamor surrounding their recent rocket launch, seems to indicate a preference of mute protest to the recent activities taken by the UN Security Council, showing that North Korea holds no illusions about the United States. Since they made a display of the rocket launch, and since a strategy regarding their future military actions exists, this response could be interpreted as sending an ironic message that the “the ball is in your court.” I predict that diplomatic relations towards the U.S. in Kim‘s third term will ultimately not stray far from a give-and-take style.

No clear message worthy of reference was presented regarding relations with South Korea either. Although, it is possible to say that they presented the situation in a manner that was slightly clearer than their overall foreign policy. They indicated that they will emphasize the traditional approach of placing primary importance on political and military matters, rather than taking an approach separating political and economic issues in relations with South Korea. This was demonstrated by the fact that there were no references made regarding the North Korea’s Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Committee, which has thus far been handling inter-Korean economic cooperation within the administration, and the fact that O Kuk-ryol, the Operations Department director of the Workers‘ Party of Korea who has been in charge of military activities against the South, was admitted into the National Defense Commission.

The Supreme People’s Assembly indicates that Kim Yang-kon, who is well known from participation in the inter-Korean summit, is staying in his position as the director of the United Front Department, but it was also made clear by the confirmation of the omission of United Front Department first deputy director Choi Sung-chol that there would be no resumption of policy towards South Korea like that seen during the Roh Moo-hyun administration.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]