hankyoreh

the 26-year-old son of Kim Jong-il

It is being confirmed that North Korea’s power structure has entered a giant vortex of transformation. This is surfacing as a key factor that could shake up the situation on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it recently confirmed that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s third son Kim Jong-un, age 26, was named successor. The NIS has reportedly confirmed that North Korean authorities have sent a diplomatic telegram to the country’s overseas missions that includes the fact that Kim Jong-un has been named successor. It is believed that North Korea had already quietly conveyed this to the Workers Party of Korea, military and cabinet. Officially informing overseas missions is thought to be a way of confirming the selection to the outside world.

The formulation of a hereditary transfer of power that spans three generations from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un indicates that North Korea is entering a historic turning point. Kim Jong-il, after being named successor by his father Kim Il-sung in 1974, engaged in a fierce power struggle before assuming power. Hwang Jang-yop, the former secretary for the Workers Party of Korea who defected to South Korea, has said it was almost as if Kim Jong-il seized power by stealing it from Kim Il-sung, and because of this, Kim Il-sung had to read his son’s mind. Kim Jong-il knows better than anyone that one’s power can only weaken once a successor is named. Making his son an official successor-designate now suggests he is pressed for time. An intelligence official said it appears Kim rushed into implementing a successor structure after last year’s health problems.

In the short term,　Kim’s naming of a successor materializes North Korea’s post-Kim Jong-il power structure and removes some uncertainty in North Korea’s domestic situation. In the long term, however, there is great concern that this could bring even greater uncertainty to not only North Korea’s internal situation, but also the entire Korean Peninsula. Chang Yong-seok, director at the Institute for Peace Affairs said if Kim Jong-un, whose power base is week and unlike his father’s, were to take power without sufficient preparation, it is also possible the succession could instigate internal opposition and confusion in North Korea. This could have grave results for the entire Korean Peninsula.

Observers are saying North Korea’s recent hardline policies are not just the result of attempting to leverage negotiations with the U.S., but are also closely related to the building of a successor system. In this light, North Korea’s various acts of heightening tensions, including the recent nuclear test and preparations for a long-range missile test, are perhaps intended to leave Kim Jong-un the “accomplishment” of having led the forging of a “strong and prosperous state” that North Korea has pledged to build by 2012.

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