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North Korea announced the date and place for a follow-up meeting between South Korean and North Korean authorities to discuss Kaesong (Gaeseong) Industrial Complex Friday morning. The announcement came unexpectedly amid heightening tensions on and outside the Korean Peninsula following North Korea’s recent second nuclear test. For this reason, experts’ forecasts for the Kaesong meeting scheduled for June 11 are fairly grim.

The first Kaesong meeting, which signaled the first attempt at official inter-Korea dialogue since Lee Myung-bak was inaugurated, was held on April 21.

First, observers are making note of the belated nature of North Korea’s response to a proposal for a second Kaesong meeting offered by South Korea some 20 days ago. A follow-up meeting failed to materialize in mid-May amid a tense battle of nerves between South Korea and North Korea regarding conflicts in the schedule, including whether North Korea’s continued detention of a Hyundai Asan employee identified by the surname of Yu was going to be on the agenda. After a meeting failed to pan out, South Korean representatives communicated to North Korea on May 19 that they were willing to attend a meeting if North Korea settled on a date and time. North Korea has appeared non-responsive to the proposal and rocked the situation on the Korean peninsula with their second nuclear test on May 25. However, North Korea has now notified South Korea of a set date.

Second, experts are suggesting that the timing is odd. South Korea responded to the second nuclear test by declaring full participation in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) on weapons of mass destruction, and North Korea criticized this as “thrusting the Chosun (Korean) Peninsula into a state of war.” At the international level, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has been pursuing a resolution for heavy sanctions against North Korea. Viewed in this context, it is very difficult to view this announcement of a second Kaesong meeting as a message of appeasement to South Korea from North Korea.

An analysis of the actual wording of the notification shows that North Korea has used the word jeopchok, or “contact,” indicating that they plan to unilaterally convey information that has already been decided. This means that they are still avoiding use of the term hoedam, or “talks,” which was used when inter-Korean relations were proceeding normally.

From a unilateral framework, North Korea’s announcement of a follow-up meeting represents an extension of its May 15 announcement declaring the legal regulations and contracts for the Kaesong Industrial Complex null and void. In that announcement, North Korea declared the invalidity of all regulations and contract items related to land rental and usage fees, wages and taxes. It also informed South Korea that it was welcome to withdraw from the complex if it did not accept this. The likelihood is therefore strong that related content will be brought up in some form during the June 11 meeting.

From this perspective, observers say it is possible that North Korea could unilaterally set land rental fees or wages and be using the meeting to notify South Korea of the changes. However, one expert on North Korean issues who wished to remain anonymous viewed this possibility as slight, saying, “Since the problem of responsibility for closing the Kaesong Complex could arise, North Korea will try to pressure South Korea in stages.” A slightly less robust possibility is that North Korea might use the meeting to apply pressure on South Korea by presenting it with a kind of “tentative plan” for new regulations related to the industrial complex prior to their passage in North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly.

Analysts also foresee that North Korea might use the meeting to notify South Korea of a reduction in the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee or the number of permitted staff from tenant companies. Since North Korea is proposing a date that comes just prior to the ninth anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration, there is also the possibility that it will link the Kaesong Industrial Complex issue with a shift in South Korea’s keynote in its North Korea policy.

The key issue is the position that South Korean authorities decide upon with regard to the issue of Mr. Yu, the Hyundai Asan employee currently being detained in North Korea. Observers say if South Korea comes out once again forcefully raising this issue, there is a possibility that no future meetings will take place. On the other hand, others say there is a possibility of maintaining the meeting if South Korea merely decides to raise the issue and propose to discuss it in the future through a separate body and apart from the Kaesong Industrial Complex matter.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]