hankyoreh

Oct 17

Analysts look for changes in Lee Myung-bak’s hardline stance as talk from North Korea of possible family reunions for Chuseok signals a possible way to thaw inter-Korean relations.

While the climate for North Korea-U.S. dialogue is warming up following former President Bill Clinton’s visit to Pyongyang, North Korea has been sending what could be interpreted as conciliatory signals. Some analysts are suggesting that although North Korea may be attempting to “pull together” North Korea-U.S. relations and inter-Korean relations, they are saying there is little chance of thawing inter-Korean relations as long as the Lee Myung-bak government maintains its hard line against North Korea.

Various prominent figures who have visited North Korea recently have recounted hearing talk about North Korea possibly proposing special meetings for separated families during the upcoming Chuseok holiday. In the past, family reunions and other humanitarian issues have served as occasions to thaw inter-Korean relations when they are chilly. Given this, these messages from North Korea appear to indicate an intention of relieving hardened inter-Korean relations. These messages are also be interpreted as indicating the possible resumption of the Mt. Kumkang (Geumgang) tour project, since that has served as the site where these meetings have taken place in the past.

In addition to the possibilities of family reunions, analysts are paying attention to the meeting of Hyun Jung-eun, chairwoman of Hyundai Group, and Ri Jong-hyok, North Korea’s vice chairman of the Korean Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, at Mt. Kumkang on Tuesday. Hyundai has attempted several times this year to meet with high-ranking North Korea officials in order to get the Mt. Kumkang tour program going again, but North Korea had put this off until late May, claiming that the timing was not right. Of course it depends on how things play out in the future and additional visits to North Korea by Hyun, however, this upcoming visit suggests a possibility of a green light on resuming Mt. Kumkang tourism or on resolving the issue of a Hyundai Asan employee identified by the surname of Yu, who has been detained in North Korea since May.

North Korea’s signals regarding inter-Korean relations remain roundabout and indirect, but they have a certain consistency to them. According to some analysts, a determination that cold inter-Korean relations could inhibit the pursuit of improved North Korea-U.S. relations has played a part in this.

Experts are also saying that the question of whether this trend leads to a thawing of inter-Korean relations depends on the Lee Myung-bak government. “Currently, the response of the Lee Myung-bak government is far more important than North Korea’s strategy,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, the head of the Hankyoreh Peace Research Institute, on Friday. “Even if things thaw temporarily, it cannot last without changes in the Lee Myung-bak government’s hard-line North Korea policy,” Kim stressed.

Experts are also stressing the need to look at the background of Clinton’s North Korea visit for other factors. Suh Jae-jung, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in the U.S., notes that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton had made remarks at a press conference on July 10 that seemed to indirectly acknowledge North Korea’s sovereignty. Speaking in connection with the issue of the journalists who were then being held in North Korea, Clinton departed from her previous demand of a humanitarian release and stated that she wanted them pardoned based on North Korea law. Some experts say this indicates that mutual respect of sovereignty is necessary if advancement of inter-Korean relations is to be realized.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]