hankyoreh

Sept. 9.

The North Korean nuclear issue has entered a critical turning point. The neo-Cold War situation on the Korean Peninsula that has existed since the start of Lee Myung-bak administration and the launch of the Obama White House this year is now transforming into one of negotiation, simultaneously impacting inter-Korean, North Korean-U.S. and North Korean-Japanese relations.

First, it appears that six-party talks will resume through North Korean-U.S. bilateral talks. On Friday, Philip Crowley, spokesman for the U.S. State Department, revealed that the U.S. will be holding bilateral dialogue with North Korea within the framework of the six-party talks. Crowley also announced the U.S. was ready to engage in bilateral talks with North Korea and that a place and time would be decided within two weeks. This announcement comes as the result of a consensus secured during U.S. Special Representative for North Korea policy Stephen Bosworth’s Sep. 3 through Sept. 7 tour of South Korea, China and Japan. U.S.‘s “two-track” approach of engaging in bilateral talks with North Korea that is based on an U.S. agreement with South Korea, Japan, China and Russia, is opening up full-scale negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issue.

The general direction of these talks is expected to materialize during U.S. President Barack Obama’s tour of Japan, South Korea and China scheduled to coincide around the APEC summit in Singapore on Nov. 14.

Another trend in the change in North Korean nuclear issue negotiations include North Korea’s recent and exceptional diplomatic actions. Japan’s Asahi Shimbun quoted a North Korean official on Saturday as saying that North Korea intends to ask South Korea, the U.S., China and Japan to come forward for simultaneous talks sometime after October. North Korea appears to be engaging in omni-directional diplomacy to simultaneously improve its relationships with the U.S., Japan and South Korea, centered on high-level exchanges between North Korea and China. North Korea’s Kim Yong-nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, will reportedly visit China to mark the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1, while Chinese premier Wen Jiabao will visit North Korea to mark the 60th anniversary of Sino-North Korean ties on Oct. 6. The Asahi Shimbun also reported that unofficial contacts between North Korea and Japan have begun.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has called for decisive change, and said on June 25 that this will be a pivotal year that determines the next 10 or 20 years. From this perspective, North Korea’s launch on July 5 of a medium-range missile signaled the end of a period of confrontation. Ever since, North Korea has suspended its military confrontation with South Korea. Observers are saying that the search for dialogue that followed, beginning with North Korea-U.S. contacts in New York and leading to former U.S. president Bill Clinton’s visit to Pyongyang, was not a coincidence.

The last major trend is in China’s active role as mediator and in the strengthening of Sino-U.S. strategic cooperation. North Korea’s official proposal of bilateral North Korea-U.S. talks came after the U.S. put forth a “comprehensive package” to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue during contacts in New York in July. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya said that during strategic talks between the U.S. and China in July, the two sides sufficiently discussed plans to change the North Korea situation. He said if the U.S., in preparing its comprehensive package, accepts North Korea’s reasonable security concerns, North Korea would readily consider a new disarmament agreement. U.S. President Obama’s discussion with former president Clinton on Aug. 19 about the results of the latter’s visit to North Korea and move towards North Korea’s offer of bilateral talks coincided with Chinese six-party talks chief negotiator Wu Dawei’s visit to Pyongyang.

Analysts are suggesting South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s statement during a breakfast meeting with foreign policy and security advisers describing the current moment as an opportunity to create a new turning point in the North Korean nuclear issue shows his recognition of these trends. Nonetheless, President Lee is saying he will continue to maintain the tenor in his current North Korea policy. As a result, some observers are expressing concern over whether South Korea will be relegated to a position of observer or will serve as a foil.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]