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Chinese President Hu Jintao’s special envoy

Chinese State Councilor Dai Binggu visited Pyongyang on Wednesday. The timing of the visit comes at a turning point in North Korea-U.S. dialogue, which is expected sometime in Oct. One cannot help but focus attention on China’s role as mediator in the North Korean nuclear issue.

In particular, Dai, who visited North Korea as a special envoy of Chinese President Hu Jintao, has received praise for playing a significant role on several occasions in transforming the situation surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue. In mid July 2003, when the situation on the Korean Peninsula was greatly shaken due to outbreak of the second North Korean nuclear crisis, he visited Pyongyang as a special envoy, leading North Korea to declare on Aug. 1 the same year that it would participate in the six-party talks. A South Korea government official said Thursday that China-North Korean contacts have often helped dialogue, and that while results of the talks are yet to be determined, Dai’s visit is a good sign.

The agenda for Dai’s visit has not yet been released. North Korea’s Korea Central News Agency said Dai, who arrived in Pyongyang on Wednesday, met with North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju and shared a candid and in-depth exchange of views in an atmosphere of camaraderie on developing friendly ties between North Korea and China and regional and international issues. North Korea’s use of the phrase “candid and in-depth” is rather exceptional, having been used after former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, and in reference to Kim’s meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao, who visited Pyongyang in Oct. 2005. The use of this phrase implies that the mood of North Korea-China talks has not been bad.

Dai is expected to focus on persuading North Korea to return to the six-party talks. Analysts say this is in line with China’s complex feelings on the issue as it has observed recent moves between North Korea and the U.S. Signs of a thaw between North Korea and the U.S., from the perspective of stability in the Korean Peninsula, is much more in accordance with Chinese national interests than heightening tensions. Privately, however, China is reportedly concerned as well that if North Korea and the U.S. handle matters bilaterally, the six-party talks will be rendered virtually powerless. For China to maintain its role and influence on the Korean Peninsula, it would make sense from China’s perspective to revive the six-party talks that North Korea has declared dead. Moreover, China has considered the six-party talks President Hu’s one of greatest diplomatic accomplishments.

One diplomatic expert said in examining precedent, China will do all it can to convince North Korea and use points of negotiation prepared through prior consensus with the U.S. and independent economic assistance as leverage.

Furthermore, China is preparing for Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Pyongyang sometime around the 60th anniversary of China-North Korean ties on Oct. 6. If North Korea takes a transformative step during Wen’s visit, it would boost internal and foreign appraisals of China’s role as mediator. Within China, Dai’s visit to North Korea also serves as preparation for Wen’s visit.

A busy diplomatic schedule to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue is planned from late Sept. to early Oct., including a summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu; Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg’s tour of South Korea, China and Japan; and a summit between the leaders of South Korea, China and Japan. The results of Dai’s visit to North Korea are important since they could become critical stepping-stones in this diplomatic schedule.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]