It has been estimated that there will be a food shortage of approximately 1 million tons in North Korea this year.

Kim Young-hoon, senior research fellow of the Korea Rural Economic Institute, released a report in which he states that he has estimated that North Korea’s food production in 2009 was 4.11 million tons, which was a 200 thousand ton reduction compared with its numbers for 2008.

Kim said, “North Korea’s total food needs amount to 5.22 million tons, thus, there will be a 1.11 million ton food shortage in North Korea this year.”

This conclusion was reached by Kim in the report through first calculating the total food need using North Korea’s estimated population of 24.3 million individuals multiplied by 167 kg of food, 75 percent of the UN Food and Agricultural Organization’s recommended calorie intake for an individual (4.1 million tons). He then factored in losses incurred from the previous harvest (580 thousand tons), the use of feed for farm animals (300 thousand tons), and the use of seed for agricultural purposes (100 thousand tons).

In addition, Kim also said, “The 1.11 million ton food shortage means that there will be a shortage of food for approximately 100 days.” Kim continued, “If North Korea does not return to six party talks, they may receive only an estimated 400 to 500 thousand tons of humanitarian food aid.” Some experts are voicing concerns that this number would fall far short of making up for the initial deficit.

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