hankyoreh

July 21. (Photo by Kim Myung-jin)

By Lee Jae-hoon

Plummeting inter-Korean integration, diminishing satisfaction and trust.

This is the report card for the North Korea policy of the Lee Myung-bak administration as it rounds the halfway point of its term. It is evidence that South Koreans are increasingly exhausted with the hardline emphasis in North Korea policy and the deterioration of inter-Korean relations. It also means public pressure for changes in that policy is that much stronger.

According to an “Inter-Korean Integration Index” released recently by the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS), the inter-Korean integration rate for 2009 was 19.9 percent. Standing at 27 percent in 2007, it fell precipitously to 21 percent in 2008, the first year of the Lee administration, and dropped below 20 percent in 2009. IPUS predicted that the index would continue its decline in 2010. This is an objective indicator showing that heterogeneity between North Korea and South Korea has been deepening during the time Lee has been in office.

South Korean citizens’ satisfaction with and trust in the Lee administration’s North Korea policy has also plummeted. IPUS commissioned Gallup to carry out interviews of 1,200 adult men and women throughout South Korea. The results of the “unification consciousness survey,” which are to be released officially on Sept. 7, showed 39.5 percent of respondents answering that they were “satisfied” with the administration’s North Korea policy. The other 60.5 percent said they were “dissatisfied.”

The situation is even more dire for trust. A mere 28 percent of respondents said the Lee administration was “doing a good job of reflecting” citizen opinions when determining North Korea policy. The other 72 percent said the administration was not. This indicates a reversal from the results of a November 2009 Korea Institute for National Unification survey that showed 58.4 percent “in favor” of the administration’s North Korea policy and 41.6 percent “opposed.” The turnaround shows that the deterioration in inter-Korean relations and Korean Peninsula tensions following the sinking of the Cheonan have had a negative impact on citizen satisfaction and trust with the administration’s North Korea policy.

With heightening military tensions between North Korea and South Korea, there have been growing calls for inter-Korea dialogue, meetings, exchange, and cooperation. According to the “unification consciousness survey” results, a full 68.6 percent of respondents answered that the Mt. Kumgang tourism and the Kaesong Industrial Complex “contribute to reunification.” This is noteworthy as a reversal of the major fall in the percentage of people expressing this view from 72.5 percent in 2007, the last year of the Roh Moo-hyun administration, to 57.3 percent in 2008.

Observers say it could be interpreted as evidence that previous arguments that North Korean aid constituted “one-sided giving” have lost steam.

IPUS also said that the percentage of respondents hoping for “improved inter-Korean relations through dialogue and exchange” as a means of resolving the Cheonan situation, at 33.1 percent, was more than three times the percentage who desired “stern punishment of North Korea, including a military response.” The fact that a full 83.6 percent of respondents said that the most pressing issue for reunification was “relieving military tensions” provided evidence of South Koreans’ strong desire for peace.

Meanwhile, calls for “flexible North Korea policy” have reportedly been much stronger at advisory meetings within the Unification Ministry. These meetings are held once every three months, with former vice ministers and Special Office for Inter-Korean Dialogue directors in attendance.

“Previously, there had been a ratio of about seven to three in favor of carrying on with our current North Korea policy, but it has recently been nine to one, so the calls for flexibility constitute the majority,” said a participant at one of the meetings.

The participant went on to say, referencing the government’s hardline policy against North Korea, “I was shocked to hear one of the strongly conservative participants say, ’I traveled around the country on official business and heard a lot of South Koreans saying that they were worried about too much of a hardline against North Korea, and that they did not know why we had to go in just one direction when we are supposed to be so strong.”

The participant said that the change in position among the former unification officials resulted from the determination that South Koreans are nervous about the current state of inter-Korean relations and are taking their dissatisfactions out on the administration.

“It is becoming more and more difficult for the administration to stick with its current North Korea policy,” the participant added.

Analysts say considerations of this trend in public opinion were also likely a factor in recent emphasis by the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) on the need to resume rice aid to North Korea.

However, opinions are split among government officials as to the chances of a change in the administration’s North Korea policy.

“There is a chance that President Lee will take the November G-20 summit as an opportunity to switch out his foreign affairs and national security team and make changes in his North Korea policy,” said one official.

Another said, however, “In view of the president and administration’s key political judgments and perceptions of North Korea, the chance they will change the tenor of their North Korea policy is relatively low.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]