hankyoreh

By Lee Je-hoon

News of an unexpected China visit early Thursday morning by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was met with puzzlement among government officials and experts. Their first response tended to be that the visit “came out of nowhere” or was “inconceivable.”

Even after the Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) confirmed that Kim’s exclusive train had crossed the Chinese border before 1 a.m. Thursday and entered China’s Jilin Province, experts were divided on what they saw as the factors and the purpose behind his visit. In addition to being completely unexpected, there has also never been a previous case of a North Korean supreme leader visiting China twice in one year.

In an analysis of the visit, experts have cited three main factors that could have influenced the visit, namely internal issues related to the succession of the country’s leadership or economic difficulties, international issues such as the six-party talks, and discussions on a new openness policy and stronger economic cooperation with China.

The most frequently mentioned possibility is that the visit was connected with issues such as the third Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) meeting of party representatives to take place in early September, the 65th anniversary of the WPK‘s establishment on Oct. 10, and the planned succession of Kim Jong-il’s third son, Kim Jong-un. The WPK meeting of representatives is a large-scale political event that has not taken place in 44 years, the second such meeting having taken place in October 1966.

Some analysts suggest that Kim’s visit might be an attempt to gain the support of the Chinese government to the succession of Kim Jong-un. However, experts and former and current government officials familiar with the situation in North Korea-China relations largely dismissed that possibility, calling it unlikely. The view they presented was that North Korea, with its emphasis on autonomy, is unlikely to emulate a Joseon-era “formal installation of the Crown Prince.”

However, few analysts rejected the possibility that the visit bears some connection with the succession issue.

Former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said, “If the reports of Chairman Kim’s visit to China are true, there is a strong likelihood that his goal is to shape an environment for naturally resolving the issue of Kim Jong-un‘s succession by obtaining large-scale economic support from China to hold September’s WPK Representatives‘ Meeting amid a festive atmosphere and satisfy the people’s expectations.”

A key government official said, “In light of the serious economic problems facing North Korea, one of its key objectives is probably to gain China’s economic support.”

Meanwhile, Yonsei University Professor Moon Chung-in said that flood damages in the North Korean city of Sinuiju were more serious than was disclosed to the outside world.

“His principal goal is more likely to gain economic support from China, not to address the succession issue,” Moon said.

As a second possibility, analysts are saying that Kim’s visit may have been motivated by the need to coordinate with the supreme Chinese leadership on major international issues, such the long-term failure to make headway with the six-party talks and the heightening military tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the wake of the Cheonan’s sinking. However, these analyses are further split between “positive” and “negative” scenarios.

Former Vice Minister of Unification Rhee Bong-jo said that normalization of U.S.-North Korean relations is a precondition for completing the succession structure in North Korea.

“It is a situation in which Chairman Kim Jong-il has to make a risky bet in order to normalize relations with the United States,” Rhee said.

Another interpretation is that the visit could mean that strategic efforts have begun in earnest among North Korea, the United States and China. This comes after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called for “fresh options” in Korean Peninsula policy, former U.S. President Jimmy Center traveled on a visit to North Korea, and Wu Dawei, special representative of the Chinese government on the Korean peninsular affairs, visited North Korea from Aug. 16 to 18.

However, another former key official who asked to remain anonymous said, “The political structure and environment in Northeast Asia are currently too poor for us to interpret Chairman Kim’s visit positively in connection with the six-party talks.” This former official raised the possibility of a “negative scenario,” noting that Kim “could be expressing his intent to return quickly to the six-party talks, but at the same time letting China know beforehand that it will be obligated to respond directly, for example with a third nuclear test, if the U.S. persists with its current sanctions and pressure, and asking for China’s understanding on this.”

Inje University Professor Kim Yeon-chul said, “If North Korea tries brinkmanship now, China is the party in the most vexed position.”

“Whatever the message of Chairman Kim’s China visit may be, there is a strong chance that China will greatly step up its efforts to form a suitable environment for resuming the six-party talks, for example through contacts with the U.S.,” Kim added.

A third interpretation, presented by a former senior official, is that Kim‘s visit is not related to the succession issue or the six-party talks, but instead may have the goal of “providing prior notice on new policy changes in North Korea that will be announced at September’s WPK meeting of representatives, and seeking China‘s coordination and cooperation.”

In particular, the fact that the first destination of Kim’s train was not Sinuiju and Dandong as usual, but Manpo and the city of Jian in Jilin Province, has prompted some to question whether Kim had in mind discussions on a development project linking the Changchun-Jilin-Tumen River Pilot Zone, regarded as a state-level development plan by the Chinese government, and North Korea’s Rajin-Sonbong Economic and Trade Zone.

Many experts predicted regardless of the main goal of Kim’s visit, there would also likely be substantial discussions aimed at fleshing out plans for “stronger economic cooperation,” as agreed upon in May talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]