Attention focusing on China’s role in inter-Korean relations

Posted on : 2010-09-01 15:52 KST Modified on : 2010-09-01 15:52 KST
Experts say China has the most influence over N.Korea for returning to six-party talks and easing tension on the Korean peninsula
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By Lee Je-hoon, Staff writer

The situation in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, remains turbulent. Immediately following the announcement by North Korea and China of the results of the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Chinese President Hu Jintao, the U.S. government officially announced additional sanctions on North Korea on Monday (local time). It seems the U.S. government has responded to the announcement by the North Korean and Chinese leaders of “strengthening friendly cooperation between North Korea and China” with a continuation of sanctions and pressure.

Joint South Korean and U.S. anti-submarine drills are scheduled to take place in the West Sea from Sept. 5-9 and live fire drills by China’s North Sea Fleet are also scheduled. Since the sinking of the Cheonan, the neo-Cold War structure of confrontation is increasing between South Korea, the United States and Japan against North Korea and China.

However, positive steps have also been taken. The discussion of restarting the six-party talks, stirred by the summit between Kim and Hu and the tour by Chinese six-party talks chief negotiator Wu Dawei of North Korea, South Korea, Japan, the United States and Russia, could become a turning point for the situation. In particular, many government officials and experts say that it is worth noting a Xinhua news report stating that after his summit with Hu, Kim said North Korea hopes for a quick restart of the six-party talks through close dialogue and cooperation with China. In addition, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada commented that Wu said Tuesday that he would present to participating countries a new proposal pertaining to the restart of the six-party talks.

The response from the South Korean and U.S. governments, however, has been at least outwardly cool. Robert Einhorn, U.S. State Department special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, spoke at a press conference to explain the additional sanctions on North Korea.

“A mere return to six-party talks by North Korea is meaningless, rather, North Korea should take irreversible, concrete measures to keep the September 19 Joint Statement, particularly its pledge to denuclearize,” said Einhorn.

Essentially, Einhorn seemed to state that North Korea should first prove its intention to restart the six-party talks through a “concrete denuclearization measure.”

A high-ranking South Korean official also spoke Tuesday regarding Kim Jong-il’s comments about the six-party talks, and said, “While more analysis and evaluation needs to be carried out, no changes have been detected in terms of denuclearization, and it is worthwhile to note that unlike the Chinese announcement, the text of North Korea’s summit announcement did not mention the six-party talks.”

A former high-ranking diplomacy and security figure said,”As of now, I see no energy to stabilize the situation and restart the six-party talks.” The figure also said, “Whether it is North Korea or the United States, the current attitudes must change in order for a transformation in the situation to be possible, but it is difficult to keep hope alive for that moment’s arrival.”

Experts point out that even after being hit by additional U.S. sanctions, there is almost no possibility of North Korea taking preemptive denuclearization measures such as freezing or rendering inoperable its Yeonbyeon facilities. North Korea also has a strong need to strengthen internal unity for the Workers Party of Korea meeting of party representatives scheduled for early September.

Many also observe that in Washington, there is a growing atmosphere of animosity towards North Korea, and moreover, it would be difficult for U.S. President Barack Obama to take on the domestic political burden and take an active line of negotiation prior to the November midterm elections. The South Korean government has announced a plan to send 10 billion Won ($8.39 million) in humanitarian aid to the North to help flood victims, but it has also stressed that it is not thinking of changing its North Korea policy of not sending rice aid to North Korea, despite overflowing stores.

Ultimately, what is worth watching are the actions of China, which was able to get Kim to state that he hopes for an early restart of the six-party talks. Noteworthy in connection to this is an upcoming summit between Hu and Obama in Washington in November, directly following the midterm elections.

“The results of strategic fine-tuning and compromise between the United States and China will become the watershed in the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” said a former key South Korean official. “The unscheduled visit to the United States this week by Wi Sung-lac, Chief South Korean negotiation for the six-party talks, also appears due to a decision to discuss plans to respond to the possibility of this Chinese-led change in the situation.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]