Following promotions, succession in N.Korea appears underway

Posted on : 2010-09-29 12:53 KST Modified on : 2010-09-29 12:53 KST
Experts predict Kim Jong-un will assume more leadership responsibilities

By Son Won-je, Staff writer

 

The establishment of North Korea’s succession framework appears to be rapidly under way.

The prevailing analysis among experts and government officials has been that the recent announcement of Kim Jong-un being named a general and to high posts in North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party means the transfer of North Korean leadership from father to son has entered the stage of being made official.

The measure came faster than expected. Previously, many experts predicted that if Kim Jong-un were given an important position at the representatives’ meeting, North Korea would not disclose the fact immediately. This prediction took into account the fact that the younger Kim is only in his late twenties and has yet to realize any clear accomplishments that would justify domestic or foreign recognition as a successor. As such, these experts saw a strong possibility that Kim Jong-un would focus on realizing achievements for the time being and officially appear as a successor in splendid fashion at a seventh party congress in July of 2012, which North Korea has designated as its year of achieving a strong and prosperous nation.

In the past, Kim Jong-il was also confirmed as a successor with his secret appointment as a member of the Political Committee (the current Political Bureau) at a plenary session of the WPK Central Committee in February 1974. However, this information was not disclosed internationally prior to his election as a standing committee member in the Political Bureau, secretary of the party secretariat, and member of the Central Military Commission at the sixth party congress in October 1980.

Experts have attributed the comparatively rapid transfer of power to Kim Jong-un primarily to Kim Jong-il’s serious health issues. Kim Jong-il recovered after collapsing from a cerebrovascular ailment around August 2008, but he is known to still be suffering from aftereffects.

“With strokes, once it happens, it is likely to happen again,” said a key government official. “It appears they had no choice but to hasten the establishment of the succession framework.”

As a result, he may have been obliged to quickly establish his son as a leader rather than taking years or decades to develop him slowly while providing support behind the scenes.

Another indication of the rapid transfer of authority is the fact that Kim Jong-un officially ascended to the position of succession with the title of general, a military post rather than a party post.

“Unlike his father, who only had to take charge of the party, Kim Jong-un have to take charge of the armed forces and the party at the same time, with Chairman Kim currently adhering to the policy of Songun, or military first,” said Korea Institute for International Economic Policy senior researcher Cho Myung-chul. “The fact that he was given the title of general just before the party representatives‘ meeting is an indication that he is receiving both military authority and party authority at the same time.”

Sejong Institute senior researcher Jung Sung-jang said, “North Korea has been promoting Kim Jong-un as someone who has been carrying on Kim Jong-il’s ‘great Songun revolution undertaking.’” Jung went on to say, “You could view the conferment of the title of general as the start of a subsequent process of giving him core military positions such as ‘ruler of the republic’ and ‘supreme commander of the People’s Army.’”

Analysts have predicted that Kim Jong-un will focus in the future on establishing the succession framework, using his positions in the party and military to take a leading role in North Korea‘s domestic and foreign policies. In particular, observers have predicted that other figures given the title of general on the same day, including WPK Light Industry Department head Kim Kyong-hui, will function as tutors and guardians for the process of establishing the succession framework.

The South Korean government and international community were circumspect in their response to Kim Jong-eun being named a general.

“The succession issue should be seen as a process, not something that ends with the conferring of the title of ‘general,’” said a key government official. “It is a stretch to link the succession issue with North Korea’s line against South Korea or inter-Korean relations.”

With the party representatives‘ meeting marking the start of the official establishment of the succession framework, analysts say there is an increased possibility that the timeline for the full establishment of the Kim Jong-un system will also be hastened.

“Starting now, Kim Jong-un will commence direct rule based on his party and military positions, while Kim Jong-il will provide counsel and, on rare occasions, issue orders,” predicted Cho Myung-chul.

   

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