hankyoreh

Sept. 28. Kim Kyong-hui

By Son Won-je and Lee Je-hoon, Staff writers

The lifespan of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is the major variable in the third-generation succession of the North Korean leadership. At the third Workers’ Party of Korea(WPK) meeting of party representatives Tuesday, Kim was reelected general secretary, solidifying his standing as the country’s absolute ruler. If he remains healthy for some time into the future, the current dynamic structure in North Korea is such that no one is likely to challenge the establishment of the system for transferring power to son Kim Jong-un.

However, if Kim Jong-il’s health fails earlier, the current succession framework could instantaneously be thrown into upheaval.

“If Kim Jong-il’s health collapses within the next two years, then Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong-un’s guardian, could become a variable,” said Sogang University Professor Kim Young-soo on Wednesday.

The prevailing view among experts and government authorities is that the decision to make the succession framework official unexpectedly early was intended to prepare as much of a foundation for Kim Jong-un’s leadership as possible while Kim Jong-il is still alive.

Analysts have also said that the question of how Kim Jong-il manages the tremendous influence of the military during his rule will be another factor determining the success or failure of the succession framework. Observers say his plan appears to involve reorganizing the WPK organization and effecting a generational change in an attempt to minimize and head off the influence of military veterans seeking to influence the succession framework, and to assume military leadership naturally with the “royal guard” at the center.

Another variable cited by experts as a potential threat to the succession framework is popular sentiment among North Koreans, who have long been suffering from food shortages and economic woes. Analysts predict that a major task to be solved in establishing the new succession framework involves minimizing the estrangement of popular sentiment following the country’s recent failed currency reform and large-scale flooding. Of particular interest is the question of whether North Korea opts to pursue reforms and openness to achieve this. North Korea’s closest ally China has also been calling for reforms and openness, but North Korea appears unlikely to move rashly toward such policies when its main priority lies in stabilizing the regime in order to establish the succession framework.

Yet another factor is North Korea’s troubled foreign relations, including the failure to make progress with the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue and the cooling of inter-Korean relations. If North Korea is to quickly establish its succession framework, it will need to manage foreign relations in a stable way. Improved foreign relations are also urgently needed to relieve the country’s economic difficulties, but hardline foreign policy is necessary at the same time to gain the support of the military.

In spite of all of these factors, many observers are saying that the succession framework is unlikely to collapse, given that it was officially established with the full-scale sponsorship of Kim Jong-il.

“At the moment, the successor is being made official and all systems in North Korea are being operated to establish the succession system, so instability in North Korea should actually be seen as having decreased,” said Korea Institute for International Economic Policy research Cho Myung-chul.

University of North Korea Studies professor Yang Mu-jin predicted, “There is a chance that a power struggle over the succession may arise if Kim Jong-il’s health deteriorates rapidly, but because the North Korean elites mostly believe in a ‘community of destiny’ with Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un, it is unlikely to develop into a sudden upheaval such as a coup.”

A former Unification Minister who asked to remain anonymous said, “Kim Jong-un’s current standing as a successor is about where Kim Jong-il’s was in the early 1970s.”

“Kim Jong-il’s goal is probably to bring Kim Jong-un’s power base as a successor to his own level in 1980, when he was able to exercise independent authority, by the year 2012,” the former minister added. North Korea has declared 2012 to be the year of “opening the door to a strong and prosperous nation.”

Inje University Professor Kim Yeon-chul agreed, saying, “Kim Jong-un’s ascension as a successor is important, but we also need to look at how the succession management system is going to operate specifically in the future.” This succession management system centers around figures such as Jang Sung-taek, Kim Kyong-hui, Ri Yong-ho, and Choi Ryong-hae.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]