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By Son Won-je and Lee Je-hoon, Staff Writers

Since the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and successor Kim Jong-un have been conducting on-site guidance tours including economic inspections. Some speculate that by showing off the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island to their people while their foreign policy team conducts previously rare public activity, they are sending the outside world a message.

On Friday, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that Kim and his son conducted on-site tours at Pyongyang University of Dance, which had recently been renovated, and a housing complex that had been built on the slopes of Mt. Haebangsan. They were accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister Kang Sok-ju, Director of the United Front Department Kim Yang-kon, Korean Workers’ Party International Department Director Kim Yong-il and other members of North Korea’s foreign policy team, whose public activity has been limited since the funeral of First Vice-Chairman of the National Defense Commission Jo Myong-rok.

A government official said Kim Jong-il and his son’s normal economic inspections themselves according to internal logic are not a significant departure from North Korea’s internal operations, as North Korea is pushing the line that it responded to South Korea’s violations of its waters during drills with justified response shellings.

The only thing analysts were able to decipher was that with Kim remaining in Pyongyang and his foreign policy team appearing in his entourage, Kim is concentrating on preparing for the current situation.

On Wednesday, the day after the shelling, North Korea’s media did not report on-site inspections by Kim and his son. Considering that the North Korean media does not usually report inspections until a day or two later, it is possible that on the day of the shelling, the Kims engaged in no public activity. On Thursday, the KCNA reported that Kim and his son visited a glass factory in Daean County, South Pyongan Province and a bottled water factory in Gangseo County.

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, North Korea’s organization for dealing with South Korea affairs, released a spokesman’s statement Friday that said inter-Korean relations were rushing towards the brink of war, citing the South Korean-U.S. joint exercises. The statement stressed that they would respond to confrontation with confrontation and to war with war, and the time for verbal warnings was over. It was another warning of additional physical responses, coming after warnings of “second and third strong physical retaliations” and that “the gun ports are still open.”

Experts and government officials believe that as long as North Korea is unprepared for a full-on military clash, there is little possibility of it militarily responding to joint South Korea-U.S. drills.

There are historic precedents for this. South Korea and the United States conducted large-scale shows of force after the capture of the USS Pueblo in 1968 and the Axe Murder Incident in Panmunjom’s JSA in 1976. At the time, North Korea did not make a single military move.

Inje University professor Kim Yeon-cheol said, “It will likely be the same this time, as well.”

The problem of the physical security of South Koreans at Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mt. Kumgang still remains. This is because of the precedent set in March of last year, when North Korea closed off movement for South Koreans in Kaesong and Mt. Kumgang using the South Korea-U.S. “Key Resolve” exercises as an excuse.

North Korea has no choice to consider, however, that if it blocks Kaesong Industrial Complex, it might not be able to reopen the facility in the future, considering the current state of inter-Korean relations.

Former Vice-Minister of Unification Lee Bong-jo said, “North Korea will try to respond to the South Korea-U.S. exercises through cooperation with China, and it is more probable that North Korea will respond with words rather than action.” Lee went on to say, “One cannot exclude the possibility that China and North Korea might conduct a military drill in response to the South Korea-U.S. drill.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]