hankyoreh

governor of New Mexico in the U.S.

By Yi Yong-in, Staff Writer

The uranium enrichment facility shown to a U.S. nuclear expert who visited North Korea last month is turning into a major national security issue for the United States. Observers have voiced concern that it will be impossible to predict how far North Korea’s nuclear technology or facilities will develop if the enrichment facility is left unaddressed. As a result, the Barack Obama administration’s policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea, rejecting dialogue and applying pressure and containment on the assumption that the country is politically and economically unstable, is being put to the test of public opinion.

According to government officials and foreign press reports Thursday, South Korean and U.S. technical appraisal of the Yongbyon facility revealed by North Korea appears to be complete, as is the analysis of Pyongyang’s motives.

To begin with, many agreed that North Korea’s nuclear technology was considerably more developed than Iran’s and that what was revealed may not be the entirety of the country’s nuclear facilities.

Officials in the South Korean government, who were initially skeptical about North Korea’s level of uranium enrichment technology, have also been moving toward regarding it as a real threat.

The seriousness of the situation has to do with Pyongyang’s motive in revealing the facility. In the Tuesday edition of the New York Times, White House non-proliferation coordinator Gary Samore, who oversees U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy at the working level, said, “North Korea’s uranium enrichment centrifuges could be attractive to other nations.”

Samore also said, “A key element in U.S. strategy on North Korea will have to be efforts to ensure that the North Koreans do not sell to the Middle East.”

If, as the U.S. fears, Middle Eastern states or terrorist groups attempt to buy North Korean technology, this will lead not only to a breakdown in the international non-proliferation system but also to a serious threat to U.S. security.

As a short-term measure, the U.S. is responding to the North Korean nuclear issue by applying pressure on China. This stems from serious displeasure with Beijing, which the U.S. charges has helped North Korea develop its nuclear capabilities by failing to faithfully enforce a U.N. Security Council resolution sanctioning North Korea, even though the uranium enrichment equipment is entering the country by way of China.

A high-ranking South Korean government official said, “Right now, the current in Washington is all about putting the screws on China."

“I don't think the U.S. is just going to let this pass,” the official added.

But even amid the overall pressure on China, there are signs of questioning whether direct negotiations with Pyongyang should not be attempted in light of the urgency of the situation.

In a recent magazine contribution, Joel Witt, a researcher with the Johns Hopkins University U.S.-Korea Institute, said that China's leaders were unlikely to abandon Pyongyang if it meant giving up the key national interest of a stable North Korea. Witt also said the U.S. should change its North Korea policy toward giving a greater role to diplomatic efforts with Pyongyang instead of its “strategic patience” policy.

Concerns are also deepening in the South Korean government. Officials there are dodging a direct answer to the question of whether there are calls for negotiations coming from within the U.S. If Washington adjusts its policy priorities from its current emphasis on the alliance with South Korea to emphasize resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, although this appears unlikely to happen in the immediate future, the Lee Myung-bak administration, which has adhered to a hardline on North Korea, will find itself in a difficult position.

A foreign affairs expert who asked to remain anonymous said, “For both the Obama administration and the South Korean government, the most important basis for a decision on whether to negotiate to North Korea will ultimately be whether it is helpful in getting themselves or their party reelected in 2012.”

Meanwhile, a group led by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg has been visiting China since Wednesday. On Thursday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said, “Both the U.S. and China need to step up their dialogue and cooperation, and should not be fighting over differences.”

Some analysts say that Jiang’s statement shows the tense opposition between U.S. and China solutions for the Korean Peninsula issue, which is a core agenda item for Steinberg's group.

In addition, on Thursday afternoon, Bill Richardson, governor of the U.S. state of New Mexico, boarded an Air Koryo flight to Pyongyang in Beijing. Prior to his private trip to North Korea, Richardson said, “My hope is that they provide messages that will lower tensions on the Korean Peninsula.”

Richardson also said, “My message to them will be we need peace, we need to stop some of these aggressive actions, especially with respect to South Korea.”

Of North Korea, Richardson noted, “When they call me, they always want to send a message of some kind.” He added that he had made a request to visit the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

Analysts say his motive in visiting is to reexamine the uranium enrichment facility that Los Alamos National Laboratory Director Siegfried S. Hecker was recently invited to North Korea to see.

Richardson’s visit was at the direct invitation of Senior Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-kwan, North Korea's senior representative at the six-party talks. For this reason, analysis say North Korea appears to be using Richardson to convey a message to Washington.

With North Korea granting permission for journalists from CNN to accompany Richardson on his trip, anchor Wolf Blitzer departed for North Korea along with Richardson on Thursday. The network reported that its coverage of the visit, which continues until Dec. 20, may be an opportunity to keep track of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities.

Meanwhile, marine firing exercises are set to resume some time between Dec. 18 and 21 near Yeonpyeong Island in the West Sea following their halt after North Korea's artillery attack on the island. Attention is focusing the response of North Korea’s Korean People's Army, as North Korea called South Korean firing exercises near the island a provocation against its territorial waters when it attacked the island on the afternoon of Nov. 23.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]