hankyoreh

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, Staff Writer

Amid sharpening antagonism between North Korea and South Korea following the South Korean military’s announcement of artillery firing exercises off Yeonpyeong Island, the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) held an emergency meeting Sunday (local time) in connection with recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean military and government have repeatedly affirmed their intention to hold exercises as early as Monday “if the weather is good,” in spite of North Korean threats of an “unpredictable defensive strike.”

Meeting with reporters Sunday at the entrance to the Ministry of National Defense complex, Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin commented on China and Russia’s opposition to and calls for restraint on the exercises by saying, “This is not the [late 19th century] Joseon era when we were at the whim of surrounding powers, and the firing exercises will be carried out” within the reported time.

Kim added, “We are not taking into account any other variables besides the weather.”

“The only issue with these exercises is the weather. There is no connection whatsoever with the UNSC,” said a high-ranking Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) official. “Even if some conclusion is reached at the UNSC, the firing exercises will continue regardless.”

The determination within the Cheong Wa Dae and military is that the exercises are military training by a sovereign state, that they cannot be put off due to the North Korea threat, and that North Korea is unlikely to engage in a provocation that leads to all-out war.

In particular, the atmosphere within the military has been ultra-militant following the deaths of two sailors in last month’s bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korea. The military has stated, “We cannot be pushed around any longer,” and “We will pulverize North Korea if it carries out another provocation.”

The Cheong Wa Dae has also remained aware of hardline public opinion, asking how long South Korea is going to continue taking North Korean provocations. For the new military leadership, which has declared its intent to respond resolutely, the firing exercises cannot be put off any longer, if only out of consideration for morale within the armed forces.

Regarding North Korea’s threat of all-out war, a military official said, “Even if our fighters and bombers shoot down North Korea’s fighters and destroy its naval artillery bases in Hwanghae Province, there is little likelihood that things will escalate into all-out war on the eastern and western fronts, such as the launching of long-range North Korean artillery toward the greater Seoul area.

The official added, “South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities can detect signs of the start of all-out war at least four to five days in advance, so while a surprise local provocation from North Korea may be possible, a surprise all-out war is not.”

In addition to this determination, the Cheong Wa Dae is viewing the exercises from the perspective of ensuring South Korean control of inter-Korean relations and issues affecting the peninsula. In other words, it takes the view that the only way to bring to a close the current situation of unlimited antagonism is by resuming its regular firing exercises and concluding them one way or another.

An official at the Cheong Wa Dae said, “If things go on in their present state, South Korea will wind up simply being dragged around by surrounding countries and unable to seize the initiative.”

“We can only move on to the next stage once South Korea has ensured justification with North Korea and other surrounding countries through firing exercises,” said another official.

The general view within the Cheong Wa Dae is that there is little probability of a North Korean provocation, but that a limited physical clash will have to be accepted if one arises.

The Cheong Wa Dae has also responded with criticism to the convening of the UNSC meeting and with pressure on the UNSC.

A core official said, “It will be significant in and of itself if an agreement emerges from the UNSC censuring North Korea for its attack on Yeonpyeong Island and urging it to prevent a reoccurrence and refrain from acts that heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula.”

“But such an agreement will not come about because of differences of opinion between the U.S., China, Russia, and other countries, and even if one does, it has no bearing on the firing exercises,” the official added.

Observers say there is a possibility the government may use the weather as a pretext to defer the exercise depending on the outcome of UNSC discussions.

Through a statement by a foreign ministry spokesperson released late on Saturday, North Korea said, “It is necessary to clearly state in advance the responsibility for the second Yeonpyeong Island incident that will occur this time.”

“The main responsibility lies with the United States, which has incited the South Choson puppets into a provocation,” the statement read.

North Korea also hinted in the statement that it would regard the situation as an stepping stone to dialogue with the U.S.

“We will reckon thoroughly with the U.S. for all the extreme states that are brought about on the Choson Peninsula and their aftereffects,” the statement said.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson threatened resolute and merciless punishment, saying, “If the South Choson puppets insist on carrying out their artillery firing and cross over the forbidden line, they will be unable to avoid the explosion of the political situation on the Choson Peninsula and the calamity that ensues.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]