With summit, Hu moderates ‘indirect dialogue’

Posted on : 2011-05-26 13:58 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Following a breakdown in inter-Korean dialogue, observers say this could indicate growing U.S.-China dominance
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By Park Min-hee, Beijing Correspondent 

 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il participated in his third summit meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao in the past year at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Wednesday, the sixth day of his China visit, sources reported.

Kim also reportedly attended an official welcoming dinner at the Great Hall of the People following the summit, just as he did last year. The meeting and dinner lasted around four hours, after which Kim’s limousine departed from the hall at around 9 p.m.

Experts are speculating that Kim may have had a separate luncheon meeting before the summit with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who oversees economic cooperation with North Korea.

With this, it appears that a form of indirect dialogue between North Korean and South Korean leaders has taken shape following a summit between Seoul and Beijing last weekend, with China mediating between them. Amid a breakdown in relations between Seoul and Pyongyang, Beijing has effectively become the lead player in the political situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Analysts say Kim’s three visits to China in the space of a year can be characterized as a “trilogy” of efforts between Beijing and Pyongyang toward drawing a new big picture for the Korean Peninsula. Through this unprecedented series of surprise visits by the North Korean leader, the two countries have been sharing their strategic goals for the peninsula.

North Korea and China previously showed their closeness in May and August of last year through summit meetings between Kim and Hu, where they agreed upon exchanges between their respective senior leaders, the pursuit of economic cooperation, and an increase in strategic exchanges. The latest summit appears to be an extension of this, with the two leaders adjusting their collaborative relationship to reflect new developments in the political situation on the peninsula since August, observers said.

That situation has been changing rapidly during the intervening months, as Pyongyang has made its succession framework official, disclosed its possession of uranium enrichment facilities, and carried out an artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, while China has held a summit meeting with the United States and agreement was reached on a three-stage plan toward denuclearization talks.

“The three recent China visits by Kim Jong-il fit within a broader framework,” said a foreign affairs source in Beijing.

“But while the visit in May took place after the Cheonan sinking when tensions were high on the Korean Peninsula, and was focused more on realizing a breakthrough in an unstable situation surrounding the succession framework, the visits last August and this time have been focused more on detente on the peninsula and economic cooperation,” the source added.

While no official announcement has yet emerged from Beijing, experts say the two leaders likely focused their discussions on ways to break through the deadlock on the Korean Peninsula, for example by resuming the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue, and on economic cooperation between North Korea and China. Accordingly, attention is focusing on whether the leaders reached a specific agreement toward resolving the deadlock.

A foreign affairs source in Beijing said, “Kim Jong-il likely assumed a more active approach than before on the nuclear issue, including the six-party talks, and worked to establish a way out.”

“Beijing may be hoping to extract concessions from Pyongyang in order to relieve tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but Pyongyang is going to find it difficult to present a new proposal,” the source added.

“It may have been that Kim Jong-il himself presented the proposals for unconditional inter-Korean dialogue and resumption of the six-party talks communicated through former U.S. President Jimmy Carter,” the source said.

Analysts say both North Korea and China will try to use the summit as an occasion for a turnaround. In particular, China, which held summit meetings with Kim and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak at nearly the same time, appears set to use the results as a basis for negotiations with the United States, stressing its standing as a “mediator” on the peninsula.

Some experts are predicting that Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo, the “working-level control tower” for Beijing who has been accompanying Kim on his visit, may take steps himself toward establishing the proper atmosphere. Beijing and Washington have been discussing Korean Peninsula matters in depth through a summit meeting in January and a Strategic Economic Dialogue early this month.

In an analysis Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Ming Pao Daily News reported, “The Korean Peninsula has already entered the age of joint China-U.S. rule.”

But analysts are expressing the view that more time is needed to see whether Pyongyang and Beijing’s efforts toward a breakthrough will pay off.

Yonsei University Professor Moon Chung-in said, “There are limits to what the U.S. will do as long as the South Korean government is not moving, so it is impossible to jump to the conclusion that China’s diplomatic efforts will certainly work.”

North Korean reforms and openness, which China has worked toward under its strategic aims of stability on the Korean Peninsula and increased influence over North Korea, are also moving a step closer to becoming a reality through Kim Jong-il’s three China visits. A vision of linking China’s Changchun-Jilin-Tumen development project in its northeastern provinces with North Korea’s development of Rason and Sinuiju’s Hwanggumpyong Island is set to be realized in the near future.

  

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

 

 

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