hankyoreh

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il returned home Thursday following an eight-day, seven-night China visit. The Hankyoreh asked experts for their views on Kim’s visit.

Kim Keun-sik, Professor, Kyungnam University
Following the strenuous objections that came from Pyongyang after President Lee Myung-bak’s declaration in Berlin that he planned to invite Kim Jong-il to next year’s Nuclear Security Summit, there had been speculation that North Korea might be abandoning its dialogue approach and returning to a hardline stance. But at this latest North Korea-China summit meeting, Kim expressed a determination, albeit one at a very basic level, to resume the six-party talks quickly and improve inter-Korean relations. This could be viewed as agreement to a dialogue framework that goes through Seoul and on to Washington.
If Washington and Beijing involve themselves actively in the resumption of dialogue on the peninsula, there is a chance antagonism could give way to dialogue. With U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights issues Robert King in North Korea to discuss food aid, this movement could be sped up depending on how things proceed.
But with President Lee not taking a proactive approach, we will have to wait and see as to whether dialogue takes shape, as Seoul set the bar too high for Pyongyang to accept in terms of its preconditions for dialogue.

Kim Yeon-cheol, Professor, Inje University
Not long ago, I paid a visit to Hunchun, a city on the Chinese side of the Tumen River between China and North Korea. Fork cranes were there digging the ground for the building of the Wonjongri-Rason highway. There was a report that said the groundbreaking ceremony for development of Hwanggumpyong Island in Sinuiju had been cancelled, so there are probably some areas in need of working-level adjustments between China and North Korea, including wage levels. So it may be that the groundbreaking date was put off. But I do not believe there is any obstacle to the general trend.
From China’s standpoint, economic cooperation with North Korea means an opportunity to secure an East Sea port, mineral resources, and a low-wage work force. North Korea, for its part, needs foreign capital. In the broad scheme of things, their strategic interests coincide. Economic cooperation will gain momentum following this China visit by Kim Jong-il. What is needed now is internal reform in North Korea.
At the moment, North Korea appears to be on a reform drive. Former Prime Minister Pak Pong-ju, who lost his seat in a conservative backlash after pursuing reforms in 2004 and 2005, was reinstated last year as first deputy director of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee. This is a signal that Pyongyang plans to undertake reforms again. I predict that there will be follow-up reform measures as economic cooperation with China gathers steam.

Lee Hee-ok, Professor, Sungkyunkwan University
In the general context, the outcome of this China visit by Kim Jong-il and summit meeting is a continuation of China’s North Korea policy since July 2009. At that time, Beijing decided on a strategy of bringing Pyongyang closer through policy adjustments, and the strategic relationship between the two countries since then is solidifying within the broader framework, albeit with some small differences. In particular, with a change in leadership coming up in 2012, China needs North Korea’s cooperation politically, and it is also in Beijing's interest in practical terms to strengthen relations with North Korea, for example by securing East Sea sailing rights. Improved inter-Korean relations, and stability on the Korean Peninsula in general, are another pressing issue. In this respect, Pyongyang's interests coincide with Beijing’s. I think the latest summit saw a reaffirmation of this.
With Chinese President Hu Jintao in need of some diplomatic results ahead of his retirement next year, there is a chance he might apply pressure on Seoul if it adheres to its current hard line against Pyongyang. The South Korean government needs to show some imagination and find the momentum for resuming dialogue if it does not want to get left behind in the current trend in Northeast Asia.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]