N.Korea’s dictatorship probably not overthrown by a coup anytime soon

Posted on : 2011-12-27 10:12 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Experts credit relative seamlessness between military and WPK leadership as reason military will defend current administration “to the very end”

By Lee Soon-hyuk

Experts are citing the unity of North Korea's military and administrative core as the primary factor in the relative quietness of the country's military, which stands in contrast with other dictatorships like Libya and Egypt where the military moved into the foreground during periods of upheaval.
A leading example of this is the inclusion of many key military figures, including vice marshal Ri Yong-ho, in the Workers' Party of Korea Central Military Commission, where Kim Jong-un serves as vice chairman. The administration leadership in the WPK and the military leadership effectively coincide, so that political involvement of the military has been institutionalized. According to this analysis, the will of the military is typically reflected in its entirety during the top decision-making processes of the state.
Advanced age was also mentioned as a factor. In most countries, coups have been led by junior military officers. The South Korean coup of May 16, 1961, was carried out by 35-year-old Kim Jong-pil, who would later serve as Prime Minister, together with 44-year-old Park Chung-hee, who would become President.
However most of the powerful figures in the North Korean military are in their sixties and seventies. Ri, the Korean People's Army Chief of General Staff who is regarded as being the most powerful figure in the military, was 68 in September of last year when selected alongside Kim Jong-un for key positions in the party and military. Within the military, with its relatively strict hierarchy, real power is in the hands of figures who would have already passed retirement age by South Korean standards. Under these circumstances, younger soldiers are restricted in their activities.
Another essential factor is the country's powerful monitoring system. In the North Korean military, the General Staff Department oversees military operations, while the Ministry of People's Armed Forces is in charge of military-related diplomacy, administration, supplies, and finances. Meanwhile, the General Political Bureau controls the military in lieu of the WPK and handles political ideology efforts, while the Military Security Command, which is roughly equivalent to the Defense Security Command in South Korea, cracks down on figures expressing anti-system views. Together, they represent the institutionalization of powerful monitoring and controls.
Surrounded by the Taedong River, The Junggu Station and Moranbong District areas of central Pyongyang also present favorable topographic conditions for warding off a coup. Meanwhile, the intensely loyal Guard Command, equivalent to the South Korean Presidential Security Service, and the Pyongyang Defense Command, equivalent to South Korea's Capital Defense Command, have around 100 thousand troops offering an ironclad defense.
An expert explained, "Unlike other countries where the military was instituted to protect the interests of the founders of the government or the ruling class, North Korea was founded by anti-Japanese partisans who formed the core of its military."
"Far from carrying out any coup d'etat, the military is the group that will defend the third-generation transmission of power to the very end," the expert added.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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