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North Korea announced plans to launch the Earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 between Apr. 12 and 16 to mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung‘s birth.

Analyst said the move was intended to herald the beginning of the Kim Jong-un regime and demonstrate its stability. But black clouds are gathering for the peninsula, with South Korea, Japan, and the US either already objecting or expected to raise objections.

A spokesperson for the [North] Korean Committee of Space Technology (KCST) said Friday that the country would be launching an applications satellite for the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth, according to the Korean Central news Agency.

The spokesperson said the Kwangmyongsong-3 was an applications satellite that would follow a polar orbit and be launched southward between Apr. 12 and 16 from the West Sea satellite launch pad in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, with the carrier rocket Unha-3.

The South Korean government released a statement in the name of a Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson demanding an immediate halt to the plans.

“If North Korea launches an ‘applications satellite’ as announced, it would be a flagrant violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1874 banning all launches using ballistic missile technology, as well as a major provocation threatening the peace and security of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” it read.

An official with the ministry said, “It may take a while for the US to issue an official response because of the time difference and other factors, but I believe they will make an announcement to the effect that a North Korean satellite launch violates the Feb. 29 Beijing agreement.”

The KCST spokesperson also said the path of the satellite was designed safely so that carrier rocket debris from the launch would not fall on surrounding countries.

“We intend to strictly observe international regulations and practices for the launching of peaceful science and technology satellites and ensure maximal transparency in the process,” the spokesperson said.

Observers said the launch is more likely for domestic purposes than as a message to the outside world. Indeed, the country stated in its announcement that the launch was timed to coincide with the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung‘s birth, and the date was set around Apr. 15, which is Kim’s birthday, the North Korean Day of the Sun holiday. Analysts said this could be interpreted as an attempt to promote to North Korea in a year that saw Kim Jong-un come to power as the country‘s new leader. 2012 was previously named the year that North Korea would become a “strong and prosperous power.”

Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, said, “It looks like they’re turning this into an occasion to celebrate the launch of the Kim Jong-un regime, encouraging North Koreans and promoting unity.”

Over the years, North Korea has consistently used satellite launches and nuclear tests as a means to pressure Washington into dialogue when difficulties arose, including concerns about a breakdown in communication. But the current situation is not one that calls for brinksmanship through the kind of surprises sprung by Pyongyang in the past, since dialogue with Washington is proceeding fairly smoothly with the recent Feb. 29 agreement.

But the announcement will likely harm relations with Washington, which is very likely to seek a halt to the launch based on the terms of the Feb. 29 agreement requiring the suspension of missile tests. Negotiations are unlikely to proceed normally if Pyongyang insists that it is launching a satellite. Also, the US would be hard-pressed to ignore the launch after the adoption of a UNSC resolution in 2009 after North Korea‘s launch of the Kwangmyongsong-2 and nuclear test.

Inje University professor Kim Yeon-chul said, “This must be seen as a major stumbling block to negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington.”

Indeed, some observers said the launch, with its potential to breach the terms of the Feb. 29 agreement, could be interpreted as a message from North Korea to its counterpart in the agreement that it is capable of launching long-range missiles and intends to seize the advantage in negotiations or determine their direction. In other words, Pyongyang intends to use its long-range missile launch capabilities as leverage in negotiations with the US.

The announcement is also expected to have a negative impact on inter-Korean relations. Observers suggested that those relations have encountered yet another hurdle at a time when Unification Minister Yu Woo-ik’s flexibility measures have been effectively stymied.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]