hankyoreh

By Park Byung-soo, senior staff writer 　

North Korea said in a Korean Central News Agency report Sunday that it intends to go ahead with its announced satellite launch.

Calling the launch “an issue of the autonomous authority of a sovereign state,” the piece declared, “A double standard cannot be permitted on the issue of satellites.”

With its announcement coming just 16 days after Pyongyang’s Feb. 29 agreement with Washington, North Korea appears poised to send messages of both dialogue and provocation to the outside.

In its previous three long-range rocket launches in 1998, 2006, and 2009, North Korea’s message of hostility to the outside was generally clear. But there was no particular impetus for the recently announced launch, which came on the heels of an agreement with Washington and apparently smooth discussions on additional food aid.

Analysts said the mixture of overtures and provocations may have stemmed from antagonism between hard-liners and moderates within the North Korean regime. They suggested that the more militant faction, which is displeased with the Feb. 29 agreement, is pushing for the satellite launch as a way of undermining the more conciliatory wing.

A South Korean government official said, “Every country has its hard-liners and moderates, but a normal country coordinates between them and sends out a consistent message.

"What this situation suggests is a lack of a control apparatus or consolidated leadership in the newly launched Kim Jong-un regime," the official added.

Some observers raised questions on the status and capabilities of Kim‘s supporters, including Jang Song-thaek, new leader Kim’s uncle.

Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies said Jang is known to have spearheaded the move for cooperation with the outside over the years, including relations with Beijing.

"There may be some questions raised about Jang’s ability to control governance following this situation," Chang said.

Others suggested the announcement was less an issue of internal conflict in the North Korean regime than the product of consistent policy in Pyongyang.

A South Korean government official said intelligence authorities had long detected signs of preparations for a rocket launch in North Korea.

"Actually, North Korea was skeptical after seeing the Feb. 29 agreement and the pledge to halt missile launches," the official recalled.

According to this camp, North Korea’s deft avoidance of any specific mention of halting satellite launches in the agreement was a reflection of Pyongyang‘s established position that it has a lawful right to do so for peaceful purposes.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]