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By Kwon Tae-ho, Washington correspondent
US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said at a briefing Friday that it was “hard to imagine” her country giving food aid to North Korea if it carries out its announced rocket launch plans.
Observers said Pyongyang is likely to go ahead with the launch in spite of objections from Washington or other countries. In such a case, the US would be forced to nullify its recent agreement with North Korea. The Obama administration, which faces an election in November, would be hard-pressed to push for any more dialogue with Pyongyang before then, and would likely return to its previous hard-line stance. Five US senators, including John Kyl (R-AZ), sent a letter on March 15 to President Obama accusing him of “appeasement” in dealing with North Korea. They argued that sending food aid to North Korea amounted to “buying the same horse twice” and would encourage other states to develop nuclear weapons.
An end to the agreement would be severely disappointing for Washington, since it would also imply that Pyongyang is abandoning its halt to uranium enrichment and permission for an International Atomic Energy Agency examination. Also a potential cause for concern is the increased possibility of additional misbehavior by North Korea, such as a nuclear test.
The New York Times quoted analysts Saturday as saying that “a sharp American response to the latest shift could make the situation deteriorate,” noting that UN Security Council sanctions on a 2009 launch resulted in strained relations, with Pyongyang carrying out a nuclear test. Following the sanctions against it after its rocket launch in April of that year, North Korea declared that it was bowing out of the six-party talks, and conducted its second nuclear test a month later.
Another problem is the lack of any further means of sanctioning North Korea.
Also a concern for Washington is the question of how long to suspend food aid if the launch takes place. To date, it has said that the aid is for humanitarian purposes and has no political connection. Regarding the link between the launch and the halting of food aid, Nuland said a rocket launch would lead to inevitable questions about the ability to trust Pyongyang at a time when the US intended to monitor the distribution of food aid, which Pyongyang had agreed to. But observers said doubts remained over North Korea‘s willingness to allow monitors to operate in the country.
Whatever the conclusion reached, analysts are saying the increased sense within Washington that North Korea cannot be trusted means even greater hurdles remain before any return to dialogue even after the election.
　
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