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By Park Byung-soo, senior staff writer

Will North Korea’s planned satellite launch next month come off? The country’s Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite failed to enter orbit after its April 2009 launch. But experts say North Korean technology may have advanced since then.

Analysts said that while the first and second stage boosters, which used liquid fuel, functioned normally in the 2009 Kwangmyongsong-2 launch, the third stage booster, which used solid fuel, malfunctioned. For this reason, North Korea apparently worked over the past few years to improve that third stage rocket.

Noting that a third stage booster is not necessary for a satellite to enter orbit, Korea Aerospace Research Institute senior researcher Chae Yeong-seok said North Korea, like Iran, may have developed second stage reignition technology that does not require a third stage booster.

Intelligence authorities are taking note of the Iran connection in North Korea‘s satellite technology. They believe that the two countries may have exchanged technology ahead of Iran’s satellite launch in 2009, a success that may have provided an impetus for North Korea this time around.

Another question is how much North Korea can increase its range with this launch. The 2009 satellite reached 3,200 kilometers, which observers said indicated some increase in range compared to previous launches. It is still unclear if North Korea can go 8,000 kilometers, which would allow it to reach the American continent.

Chae said that range is indirectly proportional to weight and predicted that rocket performance improvements may allow North Korea to use a launch vehicle of at least 90 tons, compared to just over 80 tons in 2009.

In principle, North Korea is not wrong in claiming that satellite launching falls under a country’s sovereign rights. Yet it is the only country in the world barred by a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution from doing so.

The explanation from government authorities is that this has to do with the country’s nuclear program. Noting that satellite launch capability could easily be diverted for use with intercontinental ballistic missiles, a South Korean government official said, “The reason Pyongyang’s intentions are being questioned here is that intercontinental ballistic missiles are meaningless unless there’s a nuclear warhead attached.”

The UNSC adopted Resolution 1718 in response to North Korea’s 2006 nuclear test and launch of the Taepodong-2 missile. The resolution stated that North Korea was to refrain from any additional nuclear testing and ballistic missile launches. Controversy ensued when it attempted to launch the Kwangmyongsong-2 in April 2009. Pyongyang argued that it had launched a satellite rather than a missile, which led to differences of interpretation within the UNSC over whether it actually constituted a violation of Resolution 1718. In the end, the UNSC adopted Resolution 1874 that June, extending to all launches that used ballistic missile technology. In doing so, it clearly indicated that even a satellite launch using ballistic missile technology was in violation of its resolution.

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