hankyoreh

By Kim Kyu-won, staff writer
Pyongyang is expected to launch its rocket between today and April 16. If the launch goes ahead, there will surely be international condemnation. It remains to be seen how North Korea will handle any disapproval.
The most immediate question is whether the launch will garner a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution. Inje University professor Kim Yeon-chul said, “If the UNSC doesn’t adopt a resolution because of objections from Beijing, Pyongyang will have some freedom to respond. But if a resolution is adopted there’s a strong chance it will go the hard-line route.”
The same is true for relations with Washington. Analysts said a harsh response from the US is likely to increase the likelihood North Korea will conduct another nuclear test instead of pursuing dialogue.
North Korea’s already close relations with Beijing are likely to be strengthened as a way of getting around international sanctions or a UNSC resolution. “There is a chance [Pyongyang] will use its relationship with China to relieve pressure from the international community and move toward dialogue with Washington or the six-party talks,” said University of North Korean Studies professor Yang Mu-jin.
Experts were unanimous in predicting that inter-Korean relations are unlikely to improve as long as the Lee Myung-bak government is in office. Sejong Institute senior researcher Chung Sung-jang said, “While they do have the last instructions of Kim Jong-il and may plan to depend on South Korea economically, Pyongyang‘s fundamental position is that they will only improve relations once the Lee Myung-bak administration is gone.”
Experts also predicted that any greater flexibility from Pyongyang on the Cheonan warship sinking and Yeonpyeong Island shelling, the biggest incidents of contention between North and South, would have to wait until after the Lee administration is out of office.
Another prediction is that North Korean domestic issues will see a separation between economic concerns and political/military ones. At the moment, economic recovery is key for the stability of the Kim Jong-un regime, but dependence on China is the only means to achieve this. Indeed, North Korea already has a number of joint projects under way with China, with a law announced for Chinese support on the development of the Hwanggumpyong and Rason special economic zones, and the opening of the New Yalu (Amnok) River Bridge scheduled for 2014.
A hardening of military and political strategies may also be on Pyongyang’s horizon. Chung Sung-jang of the Sejong Institute said Kim Jong-un was a member of the military’s hard-line camp, as evidenced by his reported involvement in the Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong Island attack.
“There are concerns that we will see stronger controls at the Chinese border and domestic human rights abuses, including harsher punishments for defectors, as a means of keeping the regime in power,” Chung said.
　
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