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By Kwon Tae-ho, Washington correspondent

US experts are making mixed predictions about North Korean plans for a third nuclear test, a subject of growing concern after its recent long-range rocket launch attempt.

Speaking at a North Korea-related hearing in the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs on Wednesday, Central Intelligence Agency intelligence analyst Frederick Fleitz said there was a “less than 50-50” chance North Korea would conduct a nuclear test in the short term.

Fleitz downplayed predictions that such a test was imminent, based on South Korean intelligence authorities‘ Apr. 8 claim that satellite photos showed a large amount of soil, believing to be for tunnel filling, in the nuclear test site at Punggye Village in Kilju County, North Hamgyong.

“There is frequently some kind of activity going on at North Korea’s nuclear site,” Fleitz said, arguing that the country had often dug in the area over the past five years.

Fleitz said he was “skeptical” of claims that another nuclear test is imminent on this basis.

Fleitz also noted that North has only a limited amount of fissile material.

“I believe it will eventually test another nuclear weapon when it is technically ready and prepared to endure an enormous and debilitating amount of diplomatic isolation,” he predicted.

However, Fleitz did say there was a strong probability North Korea would fire a missile over the West Sea.

Others at the hearing predicted a North Korean nuclear test. Michael Green, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it was impossible to rule out the possibility of a North Korea nuclear test within the next few months given the historical pattern of 2006 and 2009.

Noting that North Korea previously announced 2012 as the year it would become a nuclear power, Green predicted that it might carry out a test using highly enriched uranium, given its current operation of uranium enrichment facilities.

On Apr. 10, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a private US institute investigating nuclear security issues, announced based on an analysis of satellite imagery of the Punggye nuclear test site that it was impossible to conclude a third nuclear test was imminent.

The conclusion from ISIS was that it was unreasonable to argue that a nuclear test would occur soon, simply based on the comparison of commercial satellite photographs from Oct. 16, 2010, and Apr. 1, which show an increase in soil around the entrance of a tunnel. The argument was that while the amount of soil had indeed grown, it was more likely to be from a tunnel excavation over the past fifteen months rather than soil from another location brought in to fill in a tunnel as part of the final preparations for a nuclear test.

As evidence for this, Paul Brennan, a senior analyst at ISIS, cited the absence of any signs of digging in the vicinity. Brennan noted that despite predictions of an imminent nuclear test in 2010 after digging and soil accumulation was observed around the tunnel, the expected test never took place.

According to Brennan, what the satellite images showed is more likely to be digging to prepare for a future nuclear test rather than a sign that such a test was imminent.

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