International eyes peeled for a North Korea nuke test

Posted on : 2012-05-01 11:38 KST Modified on : 2012-05-01 11:38 KST
Analysts suspect North Korea will follow failed rocket launch with test
North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un visits an exhibition of military science and technology
North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un visits an exhibition of military science and technology

By Park Byung-soo, staff writer

A recent flurry of reports predicting a North Korean nuclear test has observers questioning whether it will happen and, if so, when.

The Associated Press reported Saturday that a line of mining carts and an 8,000 cubic meter pile of earth have been detected at the North Korean nuclear test site in the Punggye Village of Kilju County, North Hamgyong province. The report cited the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University as a source.

Last week, the US’s NBC network quoted a US government official saying there was a 100% likelihood North Korea would carry out a test within the next two weeks. Japan’s Kyodo News reported that a nuclear test would likely be conducted within the next week.

The reports are primarily coming from the foreign press. South Korean news outlets have generally gone no further than quoting these reports. A South Korean government official attributed this to a “difference in interest levels on movements in North Korea.

"For countries like the US, the North Korean nuclear issue is a top area of interest," the official explained. "But it seems like the bigger concern for South Koreans is North Korea‘s talk about a ‘special action of revolutionary armed forces.’"

Authorities in Seoul and Washington have remained relatively neutral. Speaking at a regular briefing Monday, Ministry of National Defense spokesman Kim Min-seok said an examination of the satellite photographs released by Johns Hopkins indicated events from at least ten days earlier.

"At the moment, we are examining things closely with combined South Korean-U.S. intelligence monitoring equipment," Kim said without elaborating.

Previously, US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby dismissed rumors of an imminent nuclear test while speaking with reporters on Apr. 23. At the time, Kirby said no nuclear test-related movements had been detected in North Korea.

But both governments have determined that North Korea could conduct such a test at any time if it made up its mind to do so.

A South Korean government official said, "Unlike a rocket launch, where you have to transport the rocket and set it up on the launch pad before firing it, a nuclear test is not really something you can detect beforehand.

"Based on factors such as the continued activities at Punggye Village, we believe it could carry out a nuclear test once the political decision is made," the official added.

The reason for the international alertness to the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test is the fact that its first and second such tests were both conducted after rocket launches. In the past, Pyongyang conducted rocket launches and nuclear tests as a ‘set’ because the strategic effectiveness of long-range missiles hinges on whether they can carry nuclear weapons.

"An intercontinental ballistic missile without a nuclear warhead has no real strategic value, and there are no cases of any in combat position," a government authority said.

However, analysts said the recent situation is unlike those before the first and second tests. When North Korea carried its 2006 launch and test, it came across as an expression of objections to the US’s freezing of its accounts at the Banco Delta Asia. And in 2009, there had been friction between Pyongyang and Washington over testing and sample collection at North Korea‘s Yongbyon nuclear facility.

In contrast, the current situation is one where Pyongyang has no real rationale for deliberately stirring up conflict with the US. Indeed, while carrying out its rocket launch on Apr. 13, it made every possible effort to minimize US objections, including opening up the launch site to foreign journalists and experts, which was a first.

Another difference from the past is the fact that North Korea has yet to make any reference to plans for a nuclear test. In a Foreign Ministry statement on Apr. 17, it said that it would "no longer be bound by the Feb. 29 agreement [with the United States]," but did not include any specific mention of a nuclear test.

Government officials are predicting that the announcement of additional United Nations Security Council sanctions next week will be a turning point for Pyongyang’s future actions. In their view, North Korea is very likely to determine the course for any additional action, including a nuclear test, based on the level or content of these sanctions.

 April 28. (Yonhap News)
April 28. (Yonhap News)

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

 

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