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By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

Korean politics expert Bruce Cumings predicted no major changes in Seoul’s North Korean policy if Park Geun-hye wins the presidency next month.

The University of Chicago history professor’s forecast came during a Nov. 27 appearance as a discussant at a seminar on inter-Korean relations at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. The seminar, titled “Regional Dynamics and Inter-Korean Relations, Past and Present,” was co-organized by the center, Kyungnam National University, and the University of North Korean Studies.

Cumings said that Park, the Saenuri Party (NFP) presidential candidate, had a North Korea policy that was seemingly similar to that of Moon Jae-in, the Democratic United Party candidate.

But he added that if Park is elected, there would be no major changes, where there would be if Moon becomes president.

He went on to say that Park might not wish to adopt a flexible approach on Pyongyang, but would be constrained by her party and support base. As an analogy, he said that a tattoo is relatively easy to remove, but DNA is very difficult to change.

In contrast, he predicted Moon would quickly return to the North Korea policies of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations.

On relations between Pyongyang and Washington, Cumings made reference to what he called the “disaster” of the George W. Bush administration’s abandoning of its Agreed Framework with North Korea during the second North Korean nuclear crisis, which erupted after a Pyongyang visit by then-US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly in 2002.

He also said North Korea’s second nuclear test in 2009 was mostly likely a calculation on Pyongyang’s part, while this April’s rocket launch was probably the result of miscommunication with Washington.

Noting that different US administrations have different policies, Cumings ventured that Pyongyang misjudged the character of the Barack Obama administration in 2009 and paid a heavy price.

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