hankyoreh

North Pyeongan Province

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent, Park Min-hee, Beijing correspondent and Park Byung-soo, staff reporter

Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo are demanding an immediate halt to North Korea’s plans to launch a long-range rocket, its second attempt in eight months.

Observers predicted a rough road ahead for the Korean peninsula, with the announcement coming with new leaders either taking or about to take power in South Korea, China, and Japan and the Barack Obama administration beginning its second term in the US.

As of Dec. 2, Pyongyang had yet to officially notify either the International Civil Aviation Organization or the International Maritime Organization of the launch. But the plans appear to be set, with North Korea providing separate notification to Japan and other countries in the rocket’s flight path or its vicinity.

A Dec. 1 statement by a spokesperson for the Korean Committee of Space Technology said an applications satellite would be launched southward from the West Sea satellite launch site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan, between Dec. 10 and 22.

Analysts said the sensitive timing of the launch, which would take place around the South Korean presidential election on Dec. 19, strongly suggests political motives, including a possible attempt to bolster the new regime of Kim Jong-un for the upcoming one-year anniversary of his father and predecessor Kim Jong-il’s death on Dec. 17.

“North Korea already hurt its relationship with the US after a missile launch in April 2009, during Obama’s first term,” said a senior South Korean government official. “The launch won’t be welcomed in China, where the leadership just changed, or in South Korea, where the presidential election is coming up.”

The launch could have less to do with international concerns and be more a move to promote unity in North Korea, which has been roiling recently after shuffling in the top ranks of the military. Indeed, the spokesperson’s statement said the launch was intended to “honor the instructions of the late Comrade Kim Jong-il.”

Another possibility is that Pyongyang thought it might gain an edge in future negotiations by launching the rocket before new administrations take office in Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo.

“It may sense the need to test another rocket after the April failure,” said a diplomatic source in Washington. “And it may have thought that it would be better to do it now than next year, when negotiations would really start to progress.”

Liu Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Dongfang Daily on Dec. 2 that in timing its rocket launch to coincide with South Korea’s own launch of the Naro, North Korea‘s aim was to make sure it wasn’t the only one being criticized by the international community.

Observers had seen signs of the launch in the past months. After its failed April attempt, North Korea did not conduct any of the nuclear testing or rocket launches that Washington had been worried about. But that approach changed after South Korea and the US announced their new missile guidelines in October, extending the firing range of South Korean missiles to 800 kilometers.

On Oct. 9, a North Korean National Defense Commission spokesperson said, “all preparations have been made to respond to nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons, and to missiles with missiles.” The following day, a statement by a North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson warned that it “stands entirely to reason that we should strengthen by every possible means the capabilities of our missiles to strike the stronghold of aggression.”

During an Oct. 19 meeting of the UN General Assembly, North Korea called its space developments “the lawful exercise of rights according to international law” and declared that it would “continue to launch the application satellites we need to build a strong and prosperous country.”

Analysts have said that Pyongyang is once again sparing no consideration for domestic or international repercussions or the situations facing other countries while pursuing its own political goals. Pyongyang has shown no sensitivity to the on the political situation in the South.

The announcement also came just one day after Kim Jong-un met with Li Jianguo, deputy chairman of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress and a member of China’s Politburo. Once again, Pyongyang showed no concern for Beijing, which has been its defender before the international community.

Indeed, some observers suspect it may actually have taken advantage of Li’s visit.

“This isn’t the first time North Korea has followed its own timetable and said, ‘We’re going to do what we’re going to do, no matter what anyone else says,’” said a senior South Korean government official. “It happened with the April rocket launch, and it’s happening again. The only effect it will have is to reinforce the sense in the international community that it’s impossible to deal with them rationally.”

The fact that Beijing hadn’t issued any official response to the announcement as of Dec. 2 shows the vexing position it has been placed in. China is expected to state its position after confirming Pyongyang’s precise aims through inter-party and diplomatic channels.

In particular, it appears likely to try to use its channels to talk North Korea out of the launch.

“China is taking this matter very seriously,” said a diplomatic source in Beijing. “It knows that if Pyongyang goes ahead with the launch, it would mean major setbacks in the things it’s been hoping for with North Korea, including improving inter-Korean relations, Pyongyang-Washington dialogue, and resumption of the six-party talks [on the North Korean nuclear issue].”

The same source said the outcome would have a major impact on the North Korean policy of the new Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping.

Given the potential of the long-range rocket launch to influence the regional and peninsular political climate, it is possible that the authorities in Beijing will send additional senior officials to Pyongyang. China is reported to have recently made remarks to South Korea and the US suggesting it agreed with the view of the launch as a violation of UNSC resolutions.

But there is another possibility that China will balk in the UNSC at any new or stronger sanctions against North Korea if it does go ahead with the launch. Internal stability in North Korea has been one of the top policy considerations in Beijing, which has been focusing its energies on its own domestic concerns since Xi arrived in office.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]