Sanctions, further isolation are likely results of NK rocket launch

Posted on : 2012-12-13 11:48 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Domestic concerns apparently motivated launch; success could bolster Pyongyang’s bargaining position

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter

North Korea’s decision to push ahead with a rocket launch on Dec. 12 is being viewed as a strategic gamble that was aimed to ensure stability at home while also increasing its bargaining power internationally. Nevertheless, at least for the time being, the country will find itself even more isolated from the international community, with UN sanctions one likely consequence.

For the North Korean regime, 2012 has been a very symbolic year, with Kim Jong-un taking control and declaring that this is when North Korea would become a “strong and prosperous country.” For that reason, Pyongyang was desperate for some kind of results that they could show to North Koreans - and to the rest of the world. Many analysts believe that the rocket launch was motivated by this political pressure.

“Despite Kim Jong-un’s public pledge that North Koreans would never tighten their belts again, the financial crisis in the North remains as severe as ever, and there have been very few tangible results,” said Kim Yeon-su, a graduate school professor at the Korea National Defense University. “It is clear why the North Korean regime needed a successful rocket launch before the end of this year.”

Just as North Korean leader Kim Jong-il could point to the nuclear weapons that he had acquired, his son and successor Kim Jong-un has gained some credibility from the successful launch.

The fact that the rocket launch came at a very sensitive time in the South, with less than one week before the presidential election, fuels the debate over whether the North intended to sway the election. Indeed, North Korea always seems to make the news around the time South Koreans are going to the polls. In April 2012, with the Apr. 11 parliamentary elections a few days away, the North announced it would attempt to launch a rocket, and it followed through on the promise on Apr. 13, two days after the election.

However, some analysts think that the North is less interested in affecting the elections than in following its own internal logic for determining its policies. Inje University professor Kim Yeon-chul said, “The North Korean government can’t be sure what kind of impact the rocket launch will have on the election. In terms of the North’s policy priorities, it’s safe to assume that North-South relations fall behind internal politics in the North and the country’s relationship with the US.”

One of the more pervasive theories is that the North timed the rocket launch to coincide with the sensitive time when power is being handed over in the US and neighboring countries. The North Korean regime may well have judged that, since there was no way they could launch the rocket without an international backlash, they might as well make their move while countries in the area were preoccupied with setting up their new governments.

It also appears that a secondary, more domestic objective of the launch was to commemorate the first anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il (Dec. 17). It’s also possible to view the move as a symbolic way to further consolidate Kim Jong-un’s control of the North Korean military, considering that Dec. 30 will mark one year since the North Korean leader rose to the position of supreme commander.

Whatever the reason for the launch, there is no question that the North will have to pay a steep price. In fact, amid ongoing criticism and denunciations from the international community, even Chinese and Russian officials have condemned the launch. According to UN Security Council Resolution 1874, the North is banned from launching any kind of rocket that uses “ballistic missile technology.”

Despite this, some analysts believe that, in the long term, the North has managed to strengthen its bargaining position through the successful rocket launch. The US had been expressing concern for some time about the North’s long-range missile capabilities. Robert Gates, former US Secretary of Defense, once warned that, if North Korea were able to integrate its nuclear weapons technology with long-range missiles, it would present a “direct threat” to US security.

Now that the North has conducted a successful nuclear test and further proven that it can develop long-range rockets that are capable of threatening the continental US, some are asking how long the US can afford to rely on strategic patience and play the waiting game.

“For now, expect sanctions,” said Professor Kim Yeon-cheol. “Eventually, though, the US will be forced to choose a policy of intervention in the North.”

On Dec. 12, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting where Council president, Moroccan ambassador Mohammed Loulichk called the launch, “A clear violation of Security Council resolutions”.

South Korean ambassador to the UN Kim Sook said, “I believe the Security Council will take appropriate action in a swift and robust manner. Because the condemnation was unanimous, there should be no delay in the Security Council‘s decision. It should come before the end of this year”.

 

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