hankyoreh

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

The situation on the Korean peninsula is “apparently becoming considerably more serious,” said Park Han-shik on Jan. 26 (local time). Park is a political science professor at the University of Georgia and an expert on the US-North Korea relationship.

In an interview with the Hankyoreh, Park said that considering how young Kim Jong-un is, what he views a sovereign state to be, and what statements have been made over the past few days, “one wonders whether [the North] will just talk without actually doing anything.” Park also emphasized the fact that policy makers in South Korea and the US must recognize the severity of the situation.

In 1994, at the time of the first North Korean nuclear weapon crisis, Park arranged for former US president Jimmy Carter to visit North Korea, helping to resolve the situation. Having visited the North himself on more than 50 occasions, Park is very familiar with the situation there.

Hankyoreh (Hani): What is your view of the current situation?

Park Han-shik (Park): What I’m thinking is, if something goes wrong when you play with fire, you can burn your house down. People assume that these statements by the North are mere posturing, but I don’t think that’s the case. The situation appears to be becoming much more serious.

Kim Jong-un is young, unlike his grandfather and father, and as a result he seems to have a much stronger sense of the authority that a sovereign state enjoys. His attitude seems to be, if all these other countries are launching satellites for their security and prosperity, why are they only picking on us?

This was the first time that North Korea didn’t use expressions like “all-out war” and instead said they would wage a “great war of unification.” This seems to imply that they will try to unify Korea through war. They also recently said that they plan to start a hot war.

South Korea and the US respond to such behavior by telling the North to stop talking nonsense, and they label it as “needlessly provocative.” But North Korea isn’t saying these things because they’re unnecessary. It’s saying them because, for North Korea, they are necessary. Adopting a mocking attitude toward North Korea, as if it were a child, could lead to an extremely dangerous situation.

The North said about South Korea that if it is a party to the UN sanctions, the North will regard it as a declaration of war. Since this statement came from the party’s National Defense Commission (NDC), the pride not only of the party members, but also the North Korean people and the army, is at stake. One wonders whether they will just talk without actually doing anything. This is why I get this feeling that we might be sliding into an extremely dangerous situation. In the past, I had never felt this way.

Hani: What are you concerned might take place?

Park: I have considered scenarios that most people are not imagining. I’m talking about what would happen if there were a full-scale confrontation. Since the North has defined the UN sanctions as a declaration of war, it could make a preemptive strike.

North Korea probably has hundreds of guided missiles in range of South Korea. Let’s say they attack. They would wipe out the military bases in Seoul and the surrounding areas. If this happens, the US would evacuate its citizens and take the offensive. North Korea would be reduced to ashes.

But there are air-raid shelters in each neighborhood in North Korea’s big cities. The South doesn’t have these. Would all South Koreans be able to escape the attack in a few subway stations? Even if North Korea was severely battered, a lot of people would be able to emerge from the shelters. South Korea would be burned to the ground.

I think most people are not even imagining this kind of possibility because they think the chances of it actually occurring are so small.

Hani: Are you detecting the same mood that you felt at the time of the first North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994?

Park: Back then, North Korea hadn’t conducted any nuclear tests, and we weren’t sure about their guided missile capabilities. Now, the situation is different. North Korea has said that it will conduct high-level nuclear testing. What could this mean? This means that they will be testing the things required for the advanced technology that can equip warheads with uranium. It is clear that, if the North keeps pushing in this direction, they will make increasingly sophisticated warheads.

Hani: How are things different from the past?

Park: The difference is that the leadership of the country has passed to Kim Jong-un. The former leader, Kim Jong-il, was quite practical and sentimental. But Kim Jong-un seems to be a little foolhardy. He doesn’t seem to be considering compromise in regard to the nuclear program.

Additionally, this time he issued a statement under the name of the National Defense Commission. This carries more weight than foreign ministry releases or editorials in the press. Also, it’s hard to underestimate how much pride the North Koreans feel for the launch of the long-range missile. Since they regard it as a positive and important event, they are enraged by the way that other countries have opposed it.

Hani: In its statement, North Korea declared the end of denuclearization. Does this mean that they are abandoning the legacy of North Korean founder Kim Il-sung?

Park: This should be read to mean that they are refusing to discuss denuclearization in this situation. It means that they feel like it is meaningless to deal with denuclearization, not, I think, that they are going to cling to their nuclear program no matter what happens. Their position is that they will not abandon nuclear weapons until a multinational peace arrangement is in place. This is why it is useless to talk about giving up nuclear weapons. They are saying that first there must be the kind of talks that could result in a peace settlement, which is the absolute prerequisite for giving up their nuclear weapons. That comes first, and talk of denuclearization comes next.

Hani: How do you think the new South Korean government should respond?

Park: The new government should take a more active stance in its policies toward reunification and North Korea. It shouldn’t simply tack them on to whatever the US is doing. It’s unthinkable, of course, but we should ask ourselves who would suffer the most if there were an actual war. I’m not suggesting South Korea should oppose the US. Rather, they need to take steps right away to ensure that a military confrontation does not occur. This could involve setting up a direct hotline or by making contact through unofficial channels.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]