hankyoreh

By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter

As indications of an upcoming North Korean nuclear test continue to be detected, the South Korean government has been activating its full surveillance system and strengthening cooperation with the US in order to conduct detailed monitoring of movement in the North. Seoul has detected signs that Pyongyang is taking steps to prepare for a nuclear test.

“There is continuous movement of people and material around the nuclear testing site at Mantap Mountain near Punggye Village, Gilju, in North Hamgyeong Province (where the nuclear test site is located),” a South Korean government official said on Jan. 30. “It appears that final preparation is underway for a nuclear test.”

When asked about the timing of the test, the official said, “It would be hard to specify an exact time, but we think that, whenever Pyongyang gives the green light, the test could take place on the day the command is given.”

South Korea’s (ROK) Joint Chief of Staff has a similar view of the situation. “In our judgment, once the decision has been made, the North will be able to run the test within 24 hours.”

However, it appears that the North is not yet fully prepared for the test. “Our observations suggest that Pyongyang has not yet finished the final stage of preparations for the test,” a source at the Ministry of Defense said. “They still need to refill the tunnel, connect the cables, and bring in more people and material. While the likelihood of a nuclear test taking place is high, we don’t think the decisive moment is imminent yet.”

“The North seems to be checking the material and facilities inside the underground test site,” a source at the Ministry of Unification said. “My understanding is that, since all that is going on underground, it’s hard for the US, let alone Korea, to confirm it.”

Previously, the US-Korea Institute at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies analyzed recent satellite images of the nuclear test site at Punggye Village and described North Korea’s level of preparation for a nuclear test.

“An underground control bunker, which looks like it is meant to oversee the nuclear test, was detected 150m to the north of the entrance of the tunnel that is likely to be the site of the test,” the Center said.

North Korea is also stepping up efforts to preserve internal unity and maintain order among its people to brace for the military tension that the nuclear test will cause. In a meeting of cell secretaries of the North Korean Workers’ Party, which was held in Pyongyang on Jan. 28-29, party members and workers were instructed to prepare to be mobilized for battle.

“It seems that North Korea has strengthened its level of military readiness in order to bring its people to a high level of alertness,” said Kim Min-seok, spokesperson for South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense.

Nevertheless, no unusual movements have as yet been detected in the North Korean military. “So far, we have not seen any peculiar movements in the North Korean armed forces,” a ROK military source said. “There were no such movements at the time of the first or second military test, either.”

Believing that a North Korean nuclear test could take place at any time, ROK forces are remaining alert. The army is operating a task force with the Korea Meteorological Administration and earthquake observation stations to track signs of the North’s preparations and to detect whether a test has occurred. It is also reinforcing the joint monitoring system it operates with the US.

In addition, the army has strengthened information-gathering, operations, and firepower so that it can respond to a North Korean test within half an hour. It is also preparing for the possibility that Pyongyang will make a provocation involving conventional weapons instead of conducting a nuclear test.

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