hankyoreh

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

Tony Namkung, an expert in issues on the Korean peninsula, put the chances of another North Korean nuclear test at about “fifty-fifty,” although he said it was difficult to predict. Speaking in an interview with the Hankyoreh on Feb. 10, the 68-year-old Korean-American scholar said the outcome depended on the response from Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo, but added that the most important factor would be the North Korea policy of South Korean President-elect Park Geun-hye, who is set to take office on Feb. 25. According to Namkung, Pyongyang is watching closely right now to see what Park will do - and could call its test off if she shows a willingness to work proactively on improving relations.

Namkung has been advising American delegations to North Korea for more than 20 years, having visited the North more than 50 times since his first visit in 1990. Most recently, he accompanied Google chief executive Eric Schmidt on his January visit. This interview was conducted before North Korea’s Feb. 12 nuclear test.

Hankyoreh (Hani): What was the mood like in North Korea last month?

Tony Namkung (Namkung): People were up in arms over the United Nations Security Council sanctions. At the same time, though, there was some expectation of improvements in relations with South Korea and Japan. It was a bit different from their militant stance on the United States.

Hani: What kind of gesture can Park Geun-hye make to improve relations?

Namkung: Maybe something like a personnel exchange. It could be helpful, the kind of exchange where the government is sanctioning it indirectly without actively pushing it. For instance, you have things like the Pyongyang performance by the New York Philharmonic orchestra a few years back. It might also help to have unofficial meetings between officials.

Hani: How does North Korea see Park Geun-hye?

Namkung: If you listen to the things they say off the record, there seems to be a lot of interest in what kinds of policies she has in store. It may be because she said some positive things during her 2002 visit to North Korea. So I think they’re taking a wait-and-see approach.

Hani: What kinds of policies do you think Park Geun-hye needs to proceed with?

Namkung: I’m sure the people in North Korea would like to see her being like liberal former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. She’s going to have to find the middle ground between the Sunshine Policy and the policies of the Lee Myung-bak administration. She needs to stress for the resumption of dialogue more than they’re doing now.

Hani: Park Geun-hye has talked about the “Korean Peninsula trust-building process.” Do you think that’s feasible?

Namkung: I think it’s vital for the North and South Korean foreign ministries to communicate through the official diplomatic channels. There’s a lot of symbolic value to that, because it’s a meeting between diplomatic authorities who represent two sovereign states. At a meeting like that, they might be able to discuss security issues. But it’s important that the two foreign ministries initiate this bilateral dialogue rather than making it part of the six-party talks. It can serve as a sign of mutual respect. Also, the South Korean Ministry of Unification and North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea could discuss other issues like separated families, travel, and investment.

Hani: North Korea has declared an end to its denuclearization. Has its position changed on possessing nuclear weapons?

Namkung: I see the talk about giving up on denuclearization as a technical position. It’s not a strategic decision. They’re trying to pressure Washington and Seoul.

Hani: You’ve spent your life working to improve relations between the US and North Korea. What are your hopes for the future?

Namkung: I have two. The first is to make it so that North and South Korea both have friendly relations with the US, even if they remain divided like they are now. If this happens, then the peninsula can play a major role in buffering the conflicts between Washington and Beijing or between Beijing and Tokyo. The second, which is personal for me, is that I want to contribute to the lost independence fighters in North and South Korea finding their way back into our history.

I think the US can play a positive role in promoting peace on the peninsula, and I’m working to improve relations between Pyongyang and Washington. I think it would be a way of carrying on the cause of our ancestors who fought for independence - to work like this so that North and South Korean are finally reunited as a truly independent country.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]