hankyoreh

By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer

With Pyongyang following through on its warnings of a third nuclear test, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is now poised to impose even tougher sanctions. For the time being, observers are predicting a situation where hostility and fear reign, and the only question is who will blink first.

In addition to UN financial sanctions and naval blockade, Seoul and Washington are set to push for a heavy military response, including their annual Key Resolve joint training exercises, which kick off later this month. Pyongyang, which has consistently maintained that sanctions would be considered a declaration of war, is likely to take steps to follow through on a Jan. 23 foreign ministry statement announcing “physical response measures to qualitatively expand and strengthen defensive military capabilities, including a nuclear deterrent.” Now that it has conducted the nuclear test, it may pursue other military means to give a show of force.

North Korea’s foreign ministry said in an evening statement, “We will consider the search of our ships and other sanctions by the international community as an act of war. And it will bring on our relentless retaliatory strikes.” Having already positioned mobile launchers at various locations, it could undertake a test launch of its new KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile. Another possibility is a fourth nuclear test. It is exceptional that North Korea announced its official position on forthcoming UNSC sanctions on the day of the nuclear test. In 2006 and 2009, the North’s official position was announced two days after the test was carried out. The response to these sanctions shows a more aggressive posture from the North.

At the moment, it is difficult to predict how far the clash will go. After talks broke down during the first nuclear crisis in March 1994, North Korea responded to the decision to resume Team Spirit exercises by threatening to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire." Within three months, the US was pushing for UN sanctions, and the peninsula seemed headed for war. On Feb. 2, Uriminzokkiri, a North Korean propaganda outlet, uploaded a video to YouTube showing a simulation of Manhattan being barraged by missiles - a threat to turn another major city into a “sea of fire.” Indeed, the National Defense Commission, North Korea’s chief arm of authority, released a statement on Jan. 24 that clearly said the nuclear test was aimed at the US. For now, the tensions and frictions seem likely to escalate.

Pyongyang appears set to continue with its brinkmanship. If Seoul and Washington try to force it to choose between giving up its nuclear program or seeing its regime crumble, it may respond by presenting peace negotiations with the US as the only alternative to war. Neither side wants the worst-case scenario, which means that all eyes will turn once again to Beijing. China has firmly maintained that it does not want either a nuclear-armed North Korea nor a collapse of the regime in Pyongyang.

But it is unclear at the moment just how effective China will be as an intermediary. On Jan. 23, it sided with the US in voting for Resolution 2087. North Korea was up in arms, declaring an end to the six-party talks on the nuclear issue and obliquely denouncing China as a ”country that has willingly abandoned even the most basic principles.“ Moreover, Beijing is obliged to go along with additional UNSC sanctions now that North Korea has gone ahead with its nuclear test. But, as South Korean ambassador to the UN Kim Sook noted, sanctions can only go so far in addressing the crisis and breaking the vicious cycle of nuclear testing. Indeed, it has already been seen that sanctions are toothless without China on board with them. Similarly, nuclear weapons may give Pyongyang a sense of security now, but they are not a guarantee of the regime’s future. In its efforts since 2008 to pave the way for Kim Jong-un to take over, North Korea stepped up its cooperation with China, especially in the special economic zones of Hwanggumpyong and Rajin-Sonbong. If Beijing does cooperate with a blockade, the hardship could be more than North Korea can bear.

In a break with precedent, China did not send a senior political figure, a vice premier or politburo member, to North Korea to try to prevent the test from being carried out. Its only response was to summon the North Korean ambassador in Beijing. This could be seen as resulting from two factors: China’s belief that it could not prevent the test from taking place, and its consideration of an active role after the test. In other words, just as the Kaesong Industrial Complex was kept open even after the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan warship and the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, a window of dialogue needs to be kept open even if the UN sanctions are ratcheted up. The US is known to be keeping its own New York channel open between six-party talks special envoy Clifford Hart and North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the UN Han Song-ryol.

President-elect Park Geun-hye has said she plans to work on strengthening strategic partnership ties with the US and pushing for strategic dialogue with Washington and Beijing. By forming a united front with China while leaving room for it to intercede with North Korea, South Korea and the US may just be leaving a bit of room to breathe in a suffocating crisis situation.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]