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By Park Min-hee, Beijing correspondent

After North Korea pushed ahead with its third nuclear test, China’s dilemma has been growing more and more complicated.

Despite efforts at dissuasion and pressure from China not to conduct another test, North Korea went ahead with it anyway, showing the limits of China’s influence on the North. However, China still holds the key to sanctions in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Observers are watching closely to see what China will choose to do from here.

In the past, China has opposed any kind of strong sanctions that could jeopardize North Korea’s stability. It still seems unlikely at the moment that its leaders will cut off aid to the North or take part in sanctions that could take a real toll on the country. On Feb. 12, Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi summoned Ji Jae-ryong, North Korea’s ambassador to China, and told him that China “was resolutely opposed to nuclear tests,” while China’s foreign ministry released a statement. By all appearances, China is sending a strong message of criticism about North Korea’s third nuclear test. However, there are no apparent indications of change in China’s North Korea policy, experts point out.

Nor are there any signs of the forceful language that appeared in the foreign ministry statement China issued after the first nuclear test by North Korea in 2006, which said, “We are resolutely opposed to North Korea carrying out nuclear tests arbitrarily.”

On Feb. 13, an editorial by the Chinese government-run Xinhua news service said, “The urgent task at present is for every country to return to the six-party talks and use negotiations to keep the situation from deteriorating,” reiterating China’s standard position.

“China made an effort to block North Korea from conducting a nuclear test, but now that the test has taken place, Chinese leaders are mulling over the situation. They have not yet announced what posture they will adopt regarding UNSC sanctions,” a diplomatic source in Beijing said. “The Chinese reaction shown so far does not send any greater sign of change than we have seen in the past.”

However, the possibility that China could partially revise its North Korea policy after the official launch of Xi Jinping’s government at the National People’s Congress next month is a new focus of interest. The fact that North Korea conducted its nuclear test during China’s Lunar New Year festival was a slap in the face for China. It means that the nuclear test has made North Korea policy a major diplomatic task for Xi Jinping.

During his State of the Union Address on Feb. 13 (local time), US President Barack Obama mentioned a nuclear defense system in connection with the North Korean nuclear program. Indeed, some Americans are arguing that China must be forced to change its policy toward North Korea, even if that means putting pressure on China through developing a missile defense system in East Asia. The Xi Jinping government now could adopt a stiffer position toward North Korea out of a desire to improve relations with the US.

Even inside China, public opinion is turning against North Korea, and a fierce debate is underway among experts about whether China’s traditional policy toward North Korea ought to be maintained. This amounts to a confrontation between those who say that China should adopt a stronger position against North Korea to improve cooperation with the US, and conservatives who maintain that North Korea is a buffer state that stops the US from advancing north on the Korean peninsula and that its stability is the greatest priority for the security of China.

“Many people are holding to the timeworn creed that North Korea is a strategic buffer state,” said Jia Qingguo, professor at Peking University. “China needs to treat North Korea as a launch pad for forging a more cooperative relationship with the US. China and the US must work together to stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear power.”

However, the Chinese military and the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which is in charge of diplomacy between the ruling parties in China and North Korea, are sticking to the principle that North Korea is an ally that must not be abandoned even if it is doing wrong. These organizations have a strong influence on China’s policies for the Korean peninsula.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]