Chinese professor says six-party talks on NK denuclearization have run their course

Posted on : 2013-02-20 16:13 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Shi Yinhong says Beijing-Pyongyang relationship is in a state of crisis, due to NK nuclear program
 held on Feb. 19 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Seoul. (provided by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies)
held on Feb. 19 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Seoul. (provided by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies)

By Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporter

Shi Yinhong, 62, professor of international relations at Renmin University, said, “The tough sanctions against North Korea led by the US and South Korea have failed. It is probable that China, which values stability on the Korean peninsula, will not take part in strong sanctions against the North in the future.”

Shi is a renowned Chinese expert on international relations. He was interviewed by the Hankyoreh at the Asan Nuclear Forum at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Seoul, which was hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on Feb. 19 and 20.

Hankyoreh: What is North Korea’s objective in conducting a nuclear test?

Shi Yinhong: First of all, one of Kim Jong-un’s major objectives was strengthening his reputation as leader with the North Korean public and with the military. For America, the test served both as warning and retaliation to the heavy pressure it had placed on the North for so long. For China and Russia, the test seemed to be both a warning and an expression of resentment for the fact that both countries consented to the United Nations Security Council resolution in Jan. 2013 to impose sanctions on North Korea after its long-range missile launch. And for the international community, it issued a demand to recognize that North Korea has the right to have nuclear weapons.

Hani: In your assessment, what is North Korea’s current nuclear capacity?

Shi: In terms of explosive power or miniaturization of a warhead, it is undeniable that North Korean nuclear technology has improved. However, there are still many problems that the North must overcome in terms of the technology required for long-range missile development.

Hani: Has China’s policy on North Korea and its nuclear weapons failed?

Shi: While it can’t be said that China’s policy has failed, it would be hard to say that it has succeeded, either. Before the North Korean nuclear test, China clearly expressed its opposition, but the North did not accept this. The consistent hard line taken by the US and South Korea and their North Korean policy failed as well.

Hani: Since the North Korean nuclear test was conducted, China has been focusing on the six-party talks as a solution.

Shi: The six-party talks have already run their course. The objective of the six-party talks was the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, but North Korea has already conducted a successful nuclear test. North Korea will not take part in six-party talks that presuppose denuclearization. China is emphasizing the six-party talks since it puts the priority on the stability of the Korean peninsula, but it won’t be easy to achieve results.

Hani: Is the idea of maintaining North Korea as a buffer zone still pervasive in China?

Shi: If the North Korean regime collapses, it is very likely that the US forces will advance to the Chinese border on the northern end of the Korean peninsula. For whatever reason, China does not want this to occur. While the degree of importance of this doctrine may have decreased since the 1950s, it is still relevant.

Hani: In the near future, what stance will China and the US adopt toward North Korea?

Shi: Fundamentally, China and the US are cooperating on the North Korean nuclear issue. However, there is a difference between them. The US wants sweeping financial sanctions, but China thinks that sanctions would not accomplish much. China will not support strong financial sanctions. The US wants an extension of the proliferation security initiative (PSI), but China does not agree, fearing a confrontation with North Korea.

Hani: When do you expect that Kim Jong-un will visit China?

Shi: Currently, the relationship between North Korea and China is in dire straits. If things continue like this, it could reach the worst level in the past ten years. In this situation, neither Kim Jong-un nor China will consider a visit for the time being. While a visit might be possible by the end of 2013, at the earliest, it would be pointless to try to predict one now.

 

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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